Primarily a collection of news links about all 11 Missouri Valley League teams on a daily basis, culled from online newspapers, school athletic websites, the conference website, and school newspapers, plus some other content from time to time.
#121 Southern Illinois at #68 Belmont (-9), 5 PM ET, ESPN+.
Southern Illinois really only scores consistently in transition, dribble
penetration, and rim dives off help against that dribble penetration.
Belmont is the polar opposite, utilizing their spacing and elite perimeter
shooting to establish an 87th percentile catch and shoot rate with a 97th
percentile efficiency rating, and rarely creating offense off the dribble or
via the ball screen. I’ve noted this ahead of essentially every Belmont
game, that while 42% from 3 isn’t going to last, there simply isn’t a ton of
meat on the regression bone because of their 3rd percentile low quality shot
rating (per Synergy data- conversely SIU owns a 95th percentile rating in
that regard).
Belmont’s defensive structure has completely changed this season with
heavier double big lineups, which in turn means a 51st percentile rim rate
allowed has been shaved down to a 1st percentile rim rate and the 9th
farthest 2PT shot proximity rating per KenPom. That’s not particularly ideal
for SIU’s already brutalist offense, who scored 78 points at the rim in a
tight series sweep by the Bruins last year. SIU’s help heavy defense allows
a 70th percentile catch and shoot rate, with a 67th percentile uncontested
rate- also not ideal against Belmont. -
Jordan Majewski
#122 Bradley at #96 Murray State (-7), 5 PM ET, ESPN2.
This is wide-open, run-and-gun Murray versus keep-it-in-your-pants Bradley.
Styles clashes almost always lead to entertaining games, and this should
have it in spades. Murray State has played one of the most extreme versions
of drop coverage in the sport:
Which has led to them surrendering the single lowest three-point attempt
rate in America, but also the 10th-highest attempt rate at the rim and,
strangely, serious issues with defensive rebounding. Not much confidence
Bradley can solve the latter, but this level of drop coverage may be ideal
for Bradley's offense, which has been excellent when the ball is in Jaquan
Johnson's hands and less-excellent when in anyone else's. The thing holding
me back from an outright "Bradley is winning this" feel is a
fine-but-not-special frontcourt defense and the lack of a great pick-and-pop
option to beat this mega-drop. - Will Warren
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