Primarily a collection of news links about all 11 Missouri Valley League teams on a daily basis, culled from online newspapers, school athletic websites, the conference website, and school newspapers, plus some other content from time to time.
#127 Bradley at #102 UIC (-4), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Thanks
to what I'll charitably call a collapse by the entire Missouri Valley,
Bradley can get closer to wrapping up a second-place finish in the MVC
with a win here. This does matter a little thanks to the MVC's quality
this year. Your seventh-place finisher is most likely Valpo, who is 20
spots off the pace of any of the top six at KenPom. The problem,
obviously, is that UIC is straight-up better.
Wednesday, February 25
C Games
#98 Illinois State at #85 Northern Iowa (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Arch
Madness can get very mad very fast, with the preseason favorite now
being likely to finish 6th and the best defense in mid-majordom a month
ago being 5th:
Four new teams joined the poll this week. Murray St. came in at No. 19.
Navy followed at 20. Davidson returned to the Other Top 25 at No. 22.
Louisiana Tech was 24th. They replaced Santa Clara, Arkansas
St., Massachusetts and Idaho.
Watch
out, the Valparaiso Beacons are heating up! The Beacons have won three
games in a row and five out of their last six games including two solid
wins against Bradley 79-72 and UIC on the road 71-67 this week. Valpo
has already surpassed their most wins in conference since joining the
Missouri Valley Conference and they close out against Drake who is ice
cold and Evansville who has just four wins against Division I opponents.
They are favored to win both games which would put them at 18-13 on the
season and 12-8 in the MVC heading into Arch Madness.
Looking
back at their wins in conference, they’ve also taken down Northern Iowa
while sweeping UIC and picking up a win against Illinois State. They’ve
played Murray State close, losing 85-79, and lost twice to Belmont by
just a combined five points. They’ve shown that they can easily compete
with anyone in the conference and shouldn’t be overlooked in the always
chaotic Arch Madness.
Over the course of the season, they’ve been
driven by their defense which during this last stretch of six games has
held opponents to 76 points or less in their five wins. They sit at
125th in defensive adjusted efficiency per KenPom and 183rd in offensive
adjusted efficiency. Here’s how the rest of their metrics shape up:
Offensive:
331st in effective field goal percentage
102nd in turnover percentage
105th in offensive rebounding percentage
86th in free throw attempt vs field goal attempt
229th in three-point shooting
342nd in two-point shooting
79th in block percentage
6th in steal percentage
Defensive:
122nd in opponent effective field goal percentage
162nd in opponent turnover percentage
67th in opponent three-point shooting
196th in opponent two-point shooting
54th in opponent free throw percentage
107th in opponent block percentage
61st in opponent non-steal turnover percentage
112th in opponent three-point attempt vs field goal attempt
71st in opponent assist per field goal made
Putting
these metrics together, you’ll see that they offensively aren’t a great
shooting team. However, they use their defense to apply pressure. They
are 308th in tempo, so playing fast doesn’t fit into their style. They
play excellent defense on the perimeter, so they force opponents to take
contested shots from outside, limiting their ability to get into the
paint.
Owen Dease has been one of the most
consistent pieces for Valpo this season. He’s averaging 13.3 points,
3.4 rebounds, and 1.2 assists while shooting 46.3% overall and 40.7%
from three-point. He is 222nd in the country in three-point shooting and
138th in free throw shooting percentage.
Freshman JT Pettigrew
has been very underrated as he is averaging 11.8 points, 6.6 rebounds,
and 1.5 assists while shooting 37.4%. His 27% possession usage rate is
183rd, while his 10.4% offensive rebounding percentage is 209th in the
nation. He is 108th in fouls drawn per game at 5.9 which translates into
a strong 53.6 free throw rate which is 155th.
Four
seasons ago, Belmont and Murray State left the OVC, where they were
perennial giants, for the stronger MVC, a move expected to raise the
level of competition and program profile over time but also away from
the security of more easily-secured tournament appearances, at least in
the short term. Well, no matter because they’ve adjusted quite well.
Belmont will finish its fourth year with 12 wins or more in league play,
and at 15-3 has a three-game lead in the league. Murray State has
cooled off considerably following a hot start, but still sits 12-7, just
a half game out of second place, an improvement under first-year head
coach Ryan Miller after three years of mediocre play. Now, parlaying
that into the first conference tournament title for either team will be
much easier said than done, as several other teams (Illinois State, UIC,
Bradley, Northern Iowa) have shown the capability of making some noise
in Arch Madness.
From there we run through the other 22 UTR conferences. Liberty and
Navy are on the verge of clinching 1st place in their conferences.
Stephen F Austin is a potentially dangerous team that is just two wins
away from clinching the Southland. The OVC is also logjammed with six
teams that can still end up in 1st place. Belmont is looking really
strong out of the Missouri Valley. We discuss all that, and more! And,
as we do every week, we close with this week’s UTR Top Ten.
Illinois State and Murray State
have somewhat been mirrors of each other in MVC play with up and down
seasons and feeling like the true potential hasn't really been
fulfilled.... [Subscriber content]
Belmont’s Casey Alexander has the Bruins at 24-4 after Sunday’s
massive win against Murray State. This could be the second program that
Alexander — who was previously the head coach at Lipscomb — takes to the
NCAA Tournament.
Head
coach Brian Wardle is well on his way to a fourth straight season with
20+ wins as Bradley currently sits 18-9 overall and 11-5 in the Missouri
Valley at second-place in the standings. The sophomore emergence of
Jaquan Johnson has been a major reason why: standing just 5-foot-11,
he’s become one of the nation’s most dynamic mid-major guards.
This
past week, he led an upset of the conference’s first-place team in
Belmont, beating out the Bruins 95-84 in overtime with 31 points, seven
assists, four rebounds and three steals. On the road at Southern
Illinois just days later, Johnson managed 24 points, seven rebounds,
three assists and three steals in a double-digit win over the Salukis.
Goebel
had a sensational game in UNI’s win over Indiana State. The senior
forward notched 32 points, 16 rebounds, five blocks, and three steals.
Those 16 rebounds were a career high, and 32 points matched a career
best. That was her ninth double-double of the season. She shot 12-of-16
from the floor. The Urbana, Iowa, native became the only player in
Missouri Valley history with 200+ career blocks and steals.
As long as Murray State doesn't go 0-2 this week while Belmont goes 2-0,
this conference race will heavily skew towards Murray State. There is a
world where Murray State can essentially lock up the #1 seed and the
conference title if they go 2-0 while Belmont goes 0-2. Alas, Murray State
is in a great position right now.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-20: Murray State @ Bradley 2-20: Belmont @ Illinois State 2-22:
Murray State @ Illinois State 2-22: Belmont @ Bradley
The only thing that will change the #1 seed race much is a 2-0 week by
Belmont and a 0-2 week by Murray State. Heck, even if both Bradley and
Illinois State go 2-0 against the pair this week, they will still only have
a combined 4.6% chance to grab the top seed.
Bradley’s Jaquan Johnson became the first
Braves’ player to record three, thirty-point games in a season since the
1990-91 season when he torched Belmont for 31 points. The sophomore
guard becomes the first Valley player to be named ‘Player of the Week’ three times this season.
Newcomers Producing
Illlinois Chicago’s Ejijah Crawford
continues to be one of the Valley’s biggest ‘change agents’. The BYU
transfer averaged 15 points, 6.5 assists and 4.5 rebounds during the
Flames’ two victories. This week’s honor is Crawford’s second ‘Newcomer of the Week’ award in the last four weeks. UIC is 10-3 since he joined the lineup. UIC’s win at Drake was its first since 1978.
Freshman Shining
Valparaiso played three games last week,
winning two of them and freshman J.T. Pettigrew earned two,
double-doubles along the way. The Valley’s ‘Freshman of the Week’ averaged 18 points and eleven boards over the three games and joins teammate Rakim Chaney as two-time recipient of the award.
MISSOURI VALLEY: BRADLEY - Braves
solved the Belmont mystery! It took overtime, but Bradley became the
only team since January 4th to beat the Bruins. Jaquan Johnson certainly
enjoyed the looks he was getting from deep, going six-for-10 en route
to a 31-point showing. Alex Huibregtse has been a steady player all
year, very underrated, and also connected on six treys. The Braves hit
17 as a squad, a deliberate part of the formula against Belmont's
defensive construct. The quality play did not stop there, the Braves
went to in-state foe Southern Illinois on Sunday and proceeded to hand
the Salukis a 70-60 defeat. A far different game plan in the Saluki win
as this game was more defensive-focused, holding SIU to 0-for-15
shooting from deep. Yikes. Johnson added 24 points, but mostly from
inside the arc in this one. The Braves are 11-5 and are close to
securing a much-needed Arch Madness bye.
Northern Colorado 11; Austin Peay 11; North Dakota St. 9; Bradley 9;
Montana St. 9; Harvard 8; UC Santa Barbara 6; Boise St. 5; Cal Baptist 4;
Charleston 3; Merrimack 3; Sam Houston St. 3; Navy 2; Dayton 2; NJIT 2
#49 Belmont: at Illinois State, March 1 (+0.41 WAB).
Belmont, even if they can run the table in the regular season, probably
doesn't have enough to make the field as an at-large at 27-4. Three Q3
losses are a tough sell. But...I mean, a +1.1 WAB in an average season
gets you on the 11 line. I'm aware that yesterday's price is not today's
price, but can we at least agree we'd rather see 29-5 Belmont in the
NCAA Tournament instead of 20-13 TCU?
Wednesday, February 18
C Games
#111 Murray State at #98 Illinois State (-4), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. The
MVC race officially ended Sunday night thanks to Belmont turning a
17-point deficit into a 17-point win in spectacular fashion at Murray
State. At best, this might be for second or third place, which does
still matter in the MVC's format. Mostly, I just want some proof of life
from both of these teams. They're a combined 9-11 in their last 20
games.
Friday, February 20
C Games
NCAAW: #109 Murray State (PK) at #136 Bradley, 7 PM ET, ESPN+.
The women's MVC race is kind of incredible. This is 13-1 Murray at 11-4
Bradley, with 12-2 Belmont lurking if Bradley can hold serve on their
home court.
-Yesterday was rather non-cataclysmic. Illinois handled Indiana no
problem 71-51, and Belmont overcame a 17pt second half deficit to win by
17 at Murray State 87-70.
