Primarily a collection of news links about all 11 Missouri Valley League teams on a daily basis, culled from online newspapers, school athletic websites, the conference website, and school newspapers, plus some other content from time to time.
-Indiana State @ Murray State (Missouri Valley) – Murray State is
red hot and could potentially end up on the bubble if they can win out
-Belmont @ Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley) – I know Belmont has
two conference losses, but each were by just a single point and I still
think if they win out they can land inside the bubble. A win today gets them
to 17-3 overall
#117 Bradley at #99 Illinois State (-7), 2 PM ET, ESPN2.
Illinois State enters this rivalry game reeling, having last 3 straight to
what are probably all bottom half Valley teams. The common thread in
ISUred's three game slide has been Chase Walker's defense either in straight
up rim protection vs ISUblue or offenses like Valpo exploiting his lack of
mobility with their multi-dimesional pair of 4 men. Bradley's ability to
exploit drop coverage however is almost entirely reliant on the efficiency
of Jaquan Johnson and Montana Wheeler in ball screen/dribble production, as
they produce little offense at the rim and their frontcourt isn't
particularly mobile. Johnson erupted against Evansville (and Bradley needed
every one of his 35 points), but Bradley's two league losses came against
drop coverages where he had his two worst offensive games of the year. If
he's winning the ball screen and dribble vs ISU's drop, Bradley's going to
have a great chance.
On the other end, Bradley is far more aggressive on the ball screen
defensively, frequently hedging and disrupting. That leads to a high 3PTA
and catch and shoot rate allowed by the Braves, where they've been unlucky
defending them, with .20 PPP of regression owed on contested catch and
shoots for opposing offenses. It's generally not recommended to hedge and
help on Walker defensively, as ISU generates a 95th percentile open catch
and shoot rate, and Walker is a strong passer out of the post and short
roll.
0:00
/0:21
The final issue for Bradley is how dreadful they've been on the road,
especially defensively (although that 3PT luck is a factor here, with home
teams shooting 41%, but they also give up a high rate). Bradley was torched
on the road by the league's best offenses in Belmont and Murray State, and
needed 4OTs to beat Indiana State and Evansville. Unless Johnson can nuke in
ball screens (very possible), I think we see ISUred finally back in the win
column. - Jordan Majewski
#66 Belmont (-4) at #128 Southern Illinois, 7 PM ET, ESPN+.
I'm at least 4% Belmont Bruin, and at one point in my college career
(Christmas break, freshman year), I did think about transferring to Belmont.
This would have created a serious sliding doors event in my life that brings
up some uncomfortable questions and hypotheticals, but on the other hand, I
would have had a degree from the university responsible for some of the most
fun men's basketball offenses of the last 20 years. Possibly worth it.
Anyway, in this game, I look for two things on the Belmont front: can they
really continue to shoot 41.4% from 3 as they have since December 1, and are
they really a +16.4% 2PT% team that indicates an elite two-way frontcourt?
Belmont has routinely had good posts in my lifetime, but this Bruins team
doesn't go through traditional post-ups all that often. Instead, Sam Orme
and Drew Scharnowski are both excellent offensive fits for Belmont's
numerous backdoor and perimeter cuts, which is where they're scoring most
often.
This will be tested mightily against an SIU defense that may be best at
eliminating backdoor cuts, instead preferring to sit back in drop coverage
when possible. I don't love this matchup for them overall - any team that
allows a lot of catch-and-shoots, even guarded ones, could be put in hell
from tipoff by Belmont's nationally elite catch-and-shoot offense - but it's
a home game in the MVC, and as I've said before, at some point if you want
to be Southern Illinois again, you better win some big home games. -
Will Warren
The Missouri Valley Conference continues to be unpredictable. Illinois State
stumbled after an unbeaten start, while Bradley appears to be climbing out
of a recent slump.
This rivalry game sets up well for the
Redbirds
at home. If Illinois State shoots the ball reasonably well, they should be
able to pull away.
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