What's Up In The Missouri Valley: What's Up In The Missouri Valley 12/31/2025

Top 6 or 7 Mid-Major Games to Watch on New Years Day 2026--Busting Brackets

Bradley head coach Brian Wardle | MATT DAYHOFF/JOURNAL STAR / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

New Year’s Day in college basketball is not just about ranked teams and familiar national brands. For mid-major programs, January 1 is where seasons truly begin. Conference play ramps up immediately, margins get thinner, and every home game starts to feel like a must-have.

This year’s New Year’s Day slate is loaded with meaningful mid-major matchups. From the Missouri Valley to the WAC, these games will shape standings, build confidence, and expose which teams are ready for the grind of January and February. Here are the top six or seven mid-major games to watch as Wednesday becomes a showcase for programs that live and breathe conference basketball.

Wednesday Mid-Majors Take Over January 1

New Year’s Day is when mid-major college basketball fully turns the page into conference mode. There is no warm-up period. Every game matters, standings begin to take shape, and early momentum can carry a team for weeks. Ranked from 7 up to 1, here are the best mid-major games on the New Year’s Day slate, cleaned up for clarity while keeping the full context of each matchup.

Something will have to give in this Missouri Valley matchup. Neither team has won a conference game yet. Valparaiso sits at 6-7 overall and 0-2 in league play, having dropped four straight games. Their last two losses came against Murray State and Northern Iowa. Owen Dease has been the top scorer for the Beacons, averaging 12.1 points per game, but Valparaiso is scoring just 71.4 points per contest as a team.

Southern Illinois has also struggled to start the season, sitting at 6-8 overall with four straight losses. However, their conference schedule has been brutal, with all three league losses coming against unbeaten MVC teams. Their most recent loss was a three-point setback at Murray State, following losses to Illinois State and Bradley. Quel’Ron House leads the Salukis with 14.7 points per game. For both teams, this game feels like a turning point.

Evansville has had a difficult start to the season and sits near the bottom of the Missouri Valley standings. The Purple Aces are 4-10 overall and coming off a loss to Bradley. Connor Turnbull leads the team in scoring, though he is averaging just over 21 minutes per game. Evansville will need its best effort of the season to stay competitive.

Illinois State, on the other hand, is rolling. The Redbirds are 11-3 and have won three straight games since a loss to Utah State. Their most recent outing was an impressive road win at Drake, where Chase Walker scored 17 points. Walker leads Illinois State with 12.7 points per game while also contributing 2.7 assists. With a favorable stretch of games ahead, this matchup is about handling business for the Redbirds.

Murray State brings a seven-game winning streak into Chicago and looks like one of the hottest teams in the Missouri Valley. Their latest win was a three-point victory over Southern Illinois. Javon Jackson leads the Racers with 16.4 points per game, while Ramon Domon was the difference-maker in a recent win over Valparaiso, scoring 20 points off the bench.

UIC has had a tough season at 5-8 overall. They recently snapped a six-game losing streak with a win over Illinois Tech, scoring 102 points, though that came against a non-Division I opponent. In conference play, the Flames have been competitive, losing by three at Belmont and by six at home to Northern Iowa. Andy Johnson leads UIC with 13.6 points per game, with Ahmad Henderson II close behind at 13.5.

Indiana State stopped a two-game skid with a huge home win over Belmont after facing a brutal early conference schedule that included Bradley, Illinois State, and Belmont. Ian Scott leads the Sycamores at 13.9 points per game. As a team, Indiana State is averaging 76.7 points per game while allowing 73.7.

Northern Iowa is 10-3 overall and 2-0 in conference play, coming off a 10-point home win over Valparaiso. That followed a road loss to Saint Mary’s, with other defeats coming against Wichita State and Tulsa. Trey Campbell anchors the Panthers with 13.5 points per game and 3.5 assists. This matchup could shape the top half of the MVC standings.

This is the best mid-major game on the New Year’s Day slate. Bradley has won seven straight games and sits at 3-0 in Missouri Valley play. The Braves opened conference action with a road win at Indiana State and followed it with home victories over Southern Illinois and Evansville. JaQuan Johnson leads the Braves and is averaging nearly 19 points per game, including a 22-point effort against Evansville.

Belmont enters at 12-2 overall but already has one conference loss after a road defeat at Indiana State snapped a four-game winning streak. Tyler Lundblade is one of the top shooters in the country and leads the Bruins with 16.6 points per game. A home win puts Belmont right back in the MVC title race, while a Bradley win would further cement the Braves as a league favorite.

Under the Radar – Week 9--Hoops HD

From there we run through the other 21 UTR leagues and talk about how strong the Missouri Valley is with five teams who appear to be possible formidable opponents in the Round of 64.

Handing out the Hardware: All-conference players of 2025 (Part 2 of 2)--Hoops HD

MVC
G: JaQuan Johnson (Bradley)
G: Jalen Quinn (Drake)
F: Connor Turnbull (Evansville)
F: Ian Scott (Indiana State)
C: Fred King (Murray State)
POYSF: JaQuan Johnson (Bradley)

The 2025-26 Conference Play Primer for All 31 Leagues--Basket Under Review

The Two Best One-Bid Leagues, We Think
Missouri Valley
REGIONAL
Favorites (50% or above): none!
Contenders (25-50%): Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Belmont
Darkhorses (10% or above): Murray State
Wildcards (5% or above): Bradley
While I'm a little bummed that the status of the Missouri Valley has declined somewhat over the years, it remains a very fun league capable of producing Names You Should Know, and it has the single most identifiable conference tournament in the entire sport. Serious kudos to whatever businessperson and/or employee at the MVC who convinced CBS to give them that Sunday afternoon spot all those years ago. Brilliant move by you.
Removing all games against teams outside of the top-300 makes for a really interesting chart, because it shows you that all of Northern Iowa, Illinois State, and Belmont are legitimate top-75 teams in the nation. It would also tell you that Murray State is right on the cutline, that everyone in the entire league save for Evansville is a top-200 crew, and that this is quietly the best defensive league among the likely one-bids.
How believable that may be to you is your call, but I think this edition of the MVC is a little up from previous ones. If their current ranking of 9th holds, it's their best finish since 2017-18, when 11-seed Loyola Chicago made the Final Four. If they can somehow push up to 8th, it's their best since the days of Southern Illinois and Drake getting 4 and 5 seeds. It's a shame that the current state of college basketball probably guarantees this is a one-bid league, because there are at least a few teams I wouldn't mind seeing in my eventual field of 68.
CHAMPION: A surprise: your 2026 Missouri Valley co-champs are Northern Iowa...and Murray State.
TOURNAMENT: Hope you like defense. Northern Iowa gets it done over Belmont, and by doing so, bumps someone pretty good down to the 13 line. Good for upsets!
SUPER DARKHORSE: Fun-ish fact: when you remove games against teams outside of the top-300, Southern Illinois actually leaps Bradley in the standings by a hair. That could be meaningless, or the fact they've somehow shot 26% from deep in these games could be a sign of better play to come.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Murray State at Bradley and Belmont at Illinois State, March 1. These two games, on the season's final day for each, could determine who wins the conference and who has to play an extra game at Arch Madness.