Primarily a collection of news links about all 12 Missouri Valley League teams on a daily basis, culled from online newspapers, school athletic websites, the conference website, and school newspapers, plus some other content from time to time.
Darian DeVries, Drake head coach. It takes a little
over an hour to drive from Devries’ native town of Aplington, Iowa, to
Ames. He played four years at Northern Iowa and spent seven years at
Creighton working as an assistant for Dana Altman and then former
Cyclones coach Greg McDermott. DeVries is now plying his trade in Des
Moines, where in just three years at Drake he has twice been named the
Missouri Valley Conference Coach of the Year. This year DeVries led the
Bulldogs to an 18-0 start and an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament
despite losing two key starters in the final month. The only question is
whether DeVries’ profile — mid-major coach coming off a magical season —
is a little too close to the one Prohm had when he arrived from Murray
State.
Porter Moser, head coach, Loyola Chicago. Moser
seems to be on everybody’s list, so we might as well throw him in here.
His easygoing personality and the toughness of his teams would go over
well with this Midwestern fan base. Plus, Moser is familiar with
recruiting in that part of the country. He did not have a good
experience at Illinois State, where he was fired in 2007 following his
fourth season, but if the Ramblers win a game or two in this NCAA
Tournament his stock will go way up.
No. 5 Missouri State (21-2): The Bears withdrew from
the Missouri Valley Conference tournament after a positive test was
discovered in both Bradley’s and Drake’s Tier 1 groups during the
semifinal rounds. Ranked in the top 25, the group felt confident about
an at-large berth. Missouri State made a statement early this season
with wins over Maryland and Florida Gulf Coast before going undefeated
through conference play. The Bears have been an absolute force on the
defensive boards this season, holding opponents to just 6.6 offensive
rebounds a game.
Hemisfair Region
No. 11 Bradley (17-11): The Braves beat a
shorthanded Drake team in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament
championship, after Drake coach Jennie Baranczyk tested positive for
COVID-19 and contact tracing left them with just eight players. After
Missouri State withdrew due to the positive tests, Bradley’s path to the
NCAA Tournament hasn’t been as challenging. Bradley didn’t play any
Power 5 teams this season, but against teams in the NCAA Tournament, the
Braves went 0-3 with an average loss margin of 12.3 points.
Initial Thoughts: Tough shake for both teams here, honestly. On the Ramblers’ side, they are stuck in an 8 vs. 9 game despite finishing 9th at KenPom, 13th in T-Rank, and 18th in Haslametrics, marking them overqualified for this game by all reasonable predictive measures. A lack of top-end wins hurt them, though, and the Ramblers will be hard-pressed to repeat the magic of 2018.
Like Loyola Chicago, who has won six in a row and 17 of 18, Georgia Tech enters the Big Dance surging, winners of eight in a row themselves. Josh Pastner and the Jackets secured an emotional ACC Tournament championship, perfectly pouncing on the opportunity presented by Virginia’s COVID-related withdrawal. GT last appeared in the NCAA Tournament in 2010, so this is a big deal in Atlanta.
Loyola-Chicago on Offense: If you’ve watched any of Loyola this year, you know the drill offensively: play through the wickedly skilled Cam Krutwig on the block or at the free throw line, let him destroy the defense from the inside-out via ballerina-esque post moves and pinpoint passes to cutters and shooters. His considerable skill set helps him lead the team in basically every offensive category that is not perimeter shooting. Ramblers rank 62nd nationally in frequency of post ups and 24th in handoffs, both of which are keyed by Krutwig’s cerebral game.
All of that in mind, this is a worrisome matchup for the Ramblers, as Georgia Tech often mixes in an unconventional 1-3-1 matchup-ish zone. Looks normal at the start:
But as possessions go, it morphs into weirdness:
The dynamics of that zone make post ups and handoffs somewhat difficult to come by, and Pastner may opt to use that frequently, especially given the total lack of zone Loyola has faced this year (just 64 possessions all season – the MVC is ALL man-to-man).
Fortunately, all is not lost. Porter Moser is a savvy coach with time to prepare for that zone, and the rest of the roster is composed of intelligent passers. Between Braden Norris, Keith Clemons, and Lucas Williamson, the Ramblers should have enough shooting to stress the rotations of that funky system. Skilled lefty forward Tate Hall could be an X factor: he was an all-conference guy in the preseason, but he’s posted zero points in five of his last nine outings.
Georgia Tech on Offense: Just like on defense, the Yellow Jackets are pretty unconventional in terms of offensive scheme. They don’t run a ton of pick-and-roll or post ups, instead using a lot of spread sets with myriad cutting (our friend Jordan Majewski describes it as a sort of modified Princeton system).
The strength of the personnel is what makes it work so well. Jose Alvarado and Michael Devoe form an elite backcourt duo, with both capable of shouldering the scoring or creation burden, depending on the matchup. Loyola’s Lucas Williamson is an elite perimeter defender, but there’s only one of him, so expect the Yellow Jackets to try and pick on whoever is being guarded by Clemons/Norris.
Plus, ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright has evolved into a total wrecking ball as a senior, dominating the glass with his non-stop energy and physicality and becoming a terrific finisher around the rim. He has a massive athletic edge against the nimble-but-grounded Krutwig, and moving him around the floor to make Krutwig defend in space a bit could give the Ramblers nightmares.
All of this said, Loyola-Chicago is still massively difficult to score on thanks to their physicality, unbreakable discipline in gap coverage and rotations, refusal to foul, and work on the defensive glass. They force you to live in the mid-range, and Georgia Tech goes through stretches of confounding shot selection even against lesser defensive units.
Key Factor(s): If either team’s primary big man gets in foul trouble, this game could change on a dime. Neither team has a capable backup to even remotely replace the production of Krutwig/Wright, so keep an eye on how this is officiated early. Neither big man is especially great at drawing contact, which should keep both of them on the floor, but a couple exuberant calls from an official could give one team a clear edge. That’s a major potential live betting opportunity.
Final Prediction: I was totally ready to pick Loyola-Chicago over basically anyone in the first round; I just thought the Ramblers are too sound defensively, too smart offensively, and too well-coached to go down early. But the matchup zone – and Loyola’s total unfamiliarity with zone all season – gave me plenty of pause while considering the matchup. Ultimately, though, I’ll roll with Moser and the ‘Blers against an entertaining and likable Yellow Jackets squad.
Coach Porter Moser doesn’t have as gifted of
an offensive team as he did with his 2018 Final Four squad, but this
team is exceptionally disciplined on the defensive end, leading the
nation with 55.7 points allowed. The Ramblers (24-4) also lead KenPom
in defensive efficiency ratings. Big man Cameron Krutwig (15.0 ppg, 6.7
rpg) is the main holdover from that Final Four team. He was a freshman
then, and now he’s the centerpiece of a balanced roster.
This year’s
NCAA Tournament did a good job rewarding mid-majors that have achieved
during the regular season, putting Wichita State and Drake in the field
while slotting Utah State and BYU significantly higher in the bracket
than most experts projected they would be. One team that did not get a
bump in the respect column was Loyola-Chicago, which drew an eight-seed
in the Midwest Region.
The Ramblers have outstanding metrics,
ranking 10th in the NET and 9th in the KenPom rankings, while going 23-4
against Division I competition with three of their losses coming to
Wisconsin, Drake and a Richmond team that was talented enough to make
the field. The selection committee rewarded Porter Moser’s team with a
tough 8-9 matchup against ACC champ Georgia Tech before a second-round
showdown against Illinois, which is arguably the hottest team in the
country this side of Gonzaga.
March Madness 2021 dark horse No. 4: Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Seed: 8 – Midwest Region | First Round Matchup: 9 Georgia Tech
After
beating Drake, the other team from the Missouri Valley Conference to
make it into the NCAA Tournament, for the second time this year, it
seemed as if Loyola-Chicago was headed for a much higher seed than they
earned. Yet, they came in as a No. 8 and that, frankly, is hard to
believe. And the Ramblers have the possibility to make them look
foolish.
People will certainly remember the program’s previous
Cinderella run with Sister Jean on the sidelines but this team might be
even better in 2021. Senior big man Cameron Krutwig, who was part of
that team, leads the way for a Ramblers team that is ranked No. 9 in KenPom’s efficiency rankings and first in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom.
They’ll
be tested in a defensive struggle with the Yellow Jackets but, if the
Ramblers can get started off well, they have the experience and the
formula to knock off some big fish in the tournament.
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