Primarily a collection of news links about all 11 Missouri Valley League teams on a daily basis, culled from online newspapers, school athletic websites, the conference website, and school newspapers, plus some other content from time to time.
- These two enter on different trajectories. Ohio State
lost four of its final five games, and three of those losses came
against teams ranked 80th or worse in KenPom. Meanwhile, Loyola
impressed in its run through Arch Madness.
- Loyola’s surge corresponded directly to the return of Marquise
Kennedy, a bulldog defender and capable creator
- On the other hand, Ohio State’s swoon coincided with injury issues for
big men Zed Key (ankle) and Kyle Young (concussion). Both are
questionable for this one, with Key far more likely to return
- Surely you remember these Ramblers! Four starters return from the
squad that sent 1-seed Illinois packing last season
- Chris Holtmann has make the NCAA Tournament in every season of his
tenure. For some reason, the fanbase is restless, and the school’s
Athletic Director had to give him a vote of confidence
on Monday. That’s…not always the good sign it appears to be
Ohio State Has the Ball
- The Buckeyes are deadly on this end, fueled mostly by a deadly post up
attack and the playmaking of freshman Malaki Branham
- Loyola does not see many post up threats in the Missouri Valley.
Missouri State’s Gaige Prim did average 16.0 PPG and 10.0 RPG in two
meetings, though
- Loyola’s Lucas Williamson has won back-to-back Defensive Player of the
Year awards in the Missouri Valley. He’ll likely be tasked with
blanketing Branham, and if he eliminates the froshy from the flow of the
game, Ohio State’s offense is in trouble
- Ohio State takes a ton of mid-range jumpers (18th-most in the country,
per Hoop-Math), but these Buckeyes are deadly from that range. They rank
third nationally in FG% in the mid-range at 44.8%, primarily due to
Liddell
- Loyola’s answer to Liddell will probably be Aher Uguak or Chris
Knight, two rangy forwards with some physicality to them. Both are solid
defenders, but that matchup is still to Liddell’s advantage
- You are not scoring in transition against this Loyola team. Per both
Synergy and Hoop-Math, they rate as the top team in the country at
preventing such opportunities
Loyola-Chicago Has the Ball
- Without a post fulcrum like Cam Krutwig, first-year coach Drew
Valentine has adopted a more pick-and-roll-heavy attack. Various
ball-handlers can run the show, be it Braden Norris, Lucas Williamson,
Kennedy, or even wing Ryan Schwieger
- Shooters dot the perimeter around the primary PnR action. Norris,
Williamson, Schwieger, Tate Hall, and Keith Clemons have all had
excellent years from deep, and Uguak can knock in a few as well.
- Ohio State’s defensive PnR numbers are not terribly encouraging: 15th
percentile against ball-handlers, 20th percentile against roll men, 13th
percentile against spot up shooters
- Overall, the Buckeyes are brutal on this end. They have fallen to 131st in
KenPom’s AdjDE, a dismal number that underscores their lack of impact
individual defenders
Final Thoughts
- The injury questions on Ohio State’s frontline are a serious concern.
Young and/or Key being out would hurt them on both ends
- Coaching has to lean towards the Buckeyes here. Valentine could be a
rising star, but it’s his first NCAA Tournament game in the big chair.
Holtmann, meanwhile, is a veteran of this atmosphere and has a strong track
record, 2021 notwithstanding
- Ultimately, Loyola’s PnR attack should shred Ohio State’s flimsy defense.
1.2 PPP is not out of the question here if the Ramblers knock down shots.
- The pace will be slow, but both offenses should be quite efficient
(despite Williamson’s efforts on Branham)
26. Loyola Chicago: This is the first-round upset
visible from space, the No. 10 Ramblers over No. 7 Ohio State, with both
2021 and the past couple of weeks as evidence. Last year Loyola took down No. 1 seed Illinois in the second round,
while the Buckeyes were beaten in the first round by No. 15 Oral
Roberts. More recently: Ohio State is limping in with four losses in its
last five games, while Loyola authoritatively won the Missouri Valley
tournament. This Loyola team is different from the ’18 and ’21 tourney
darlings in that it’s no longer coached by Porter Moser and doesn’t
revolve around ground-bound center Cameron Krutwig. The new edition is
led by rookie head coach Drew Valentine and fifth-year wing Lucas
Williamson. The one constant: Sister Jean and her mojo.
The Ramblers have been here before. Seven of Loyola’s
top eight scorers from the team that went to the Sweet 16 last season
are back, and the Ramblers have also added a pair of key transfers to
the mix to round out what has been a rock-solid rotation for first-year
coach Drew Valentine. This team shoots the three at a high level and
really defends. They draw an Ohio State team that has lost four of five,
including bad losses to Nebraska and Penn State. And should they knock
off the Buckeyes, Loyola will get a crack at a Villanova team that won’t
overwhelm them physically. That potential Round of 32 game would be
rather low-scoring and would likely get won by whichever team makes more
threes. Given the Ramblers are in the top 10 nationally in three-point
percentage, I’ll roll the dice on them to find their way back to the
second weekend for the third time in the last four NCAA tournaments.
BET: No. 10 Loyola Chicago (+400)
Jeff Roberson/AP
SI.com’s Dan Lyons:
There's a little college hoops program from the Windy City that you may be
familiar with if you tune in around this time each year. The Ramblers
may no longer have Porter Moser or last year’s tournament star Cameron
Krautwig, but they return plenty of experience from that shocking run,
while changing their style pretty substantially from 2020–21. Under Drew
Valentine, a Moser assistant from 2017–21, the Ramblers spread things
out, with five contributor who shoot at least 39% from three. They’re
pretty balanced, with the No. 42 offense and No. 22 defense per KenPom,
and have an advantageous first-round matchup with Ohio State, which
sputters into the Big Dance. A potential second-round matchup with No. 2
Villanova looms large, but this Wildcats team isn’t as overwhelming as
Jay Wright’s recent championship-winners, and a veteran Loyola squad
won’t be afraid of the stage.
Lower-seeded team with the best chance of advancing past the first weekend
Sweeney: No.
10 Loyola Chicago. The Ramblers have plenty of March Madness experience
and got a great draw, facing off with a reeling Ohio State in the first
round before a potential date with No. 2 seed Villanova in the round of
32. The Wildcats aren’t built to blow someone out, and I trust Lucas
Williamson and Braden Norris to make big plays in March.
1. Which first-round game has your attention the most?
McCormack
Ohio State and Loyola Chicago have my attention the most to start off
the day on Friday. Ohio State has not played their best basketball down
the stretch but has not been the healthiest either. Loyola Chicago is a
team that really has excelled in March and is not scared of anyone.
The Ramblers’ style of play vs the Buckeyes will be interesting to
see who controls it overall. This really should be a fun game to kick
off a long day of madness.
3. Which is the most likely first-round upset?
Watson
Loyola Chicago uses a ton of misdirection and motion offensively and
ranks in the top 20 nationally in 3-point percentage. Ohio State has
major issues defensively — similar to the issues that saw them lose to
15-seed Oral Roberts in the first round last season.
This Loyola Chicago team doesn’t have as high a ceiling as their 2018
or 2021 teams did, but they have the offensive firepower to take down
Ohio State in the Round of 64.
4. Which double-digit seed has the best chance of making the Sweet 16?
Watson
I’ll stick with Loyola Chicago here. I like the Ramblers to upset an
Ohio State team that can’t defend in the round of 64. A potential round
of 32 matchup with 2-seed Villanova would be a tough task, but one that
Loyola Chicago has the potential to handle. The Ramblers are
well-coached and balanced — they can defend at a high level and are
highly disciplined offensively.
It’s not something I would bet on, but Loyola Chicago has the most
realistic path to the Sweet 16 of any double-digit seed in the South
Region.
This feels like a battle of two teams that have been trending in
opposite directions down the stretch. Ohio State has lost four of its
last five games coming into the tournament, with three of those losses
coming to teams that were not even close to making the field. Loyola
Chicago, on the other hand, put forth arguably its best performances of
the season in the Missouri Valley Tournament, rolling by an average of
15.0 points across three games. The Ramblers also exacted revenge on
three teams that beat them in the regular season during that tournament.
Ohio State is the better offensive team with the best player (EJ
Liddell) on the floor. Loyola Chicago, though, is more balanced and
features several holdovers from last season’s Sweet 16 team (Lucas Williamson remains as a holdover from their 2018 Final Four roster as well).
The game might come down to whether the Ramblers can slow down
Liddell. Ohio State’s 6-7 star is one of the best players in the country
and also makes a living at the free-throw line, ranking 79th nationally
in free throw rate. Additionally, Loyola runs an analytics-friendly
defense that forces opponents to take a good chunk of shots in the
mid-range; Ohio State is comfortable in that position, though,
attempting the 30th-most percentage of shots from the mid-range in the
country and hitting them at the eighth-best rate. Liddell, in
particular, is deadly in the mid-range.
Teams: Florida State (17-13) vs. Missouri State (24-7)
Where: Baton Rouge, Louisiana
About
Florida State: The Seminoles strong finish included upsets over ranked
opponents and NCAA teams in Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. Guard Morgan
Jones leads Florida State with 14.1 points and 5.7 rebounds a game.
About
Missouri State: Finished second in the Missouri Valley Conference. They
are led by Abi Jackson, who tops the team with 13.2 points and 6.9
rebounds a game.
Up Next: Winner faces sixth seed Ohio State (23-6) in the Spokane Region
Norfolk State 10; San Francisco 9; Louisiana Tech 8; Bryant 7; Drake 7;
Akron 6; Longwood 5; Santa Clara 4; Winthrop 3; Northern Iowa 3; Wagner 2;
Montana State 1
10. South Region First Round – No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Loyola-Chicago
The
only Round of 64 game to make the cut here is the first game of the day
on Friday with Ohio State taking on Loyola-Chicago. The Buckeyes spent a
ton of time in the Top 25 this season and have a bona fide star in E.J.
Liddell as they look to redeem themselves after getting upset in this
round a year ago by 15-seed Oral Roberts.
That task won’t be easy
against the Ramblers, who made the NCAA Tournament despite Porter
Moser’s departure for Oklahoma and Cameron Krutwig’s graduation. Lucas
Williamson is the leader of a battle-tested group that has all the
experience necessary to create a thrilling showdown at the start of Day
2.
Team that could bust your bracket: No. 10 Loyola Chicago
You
knew this was coming, right? The Ramblers are a household name at this
point after winning at least two games in each of their last two
tournament appearances and have tournament-darling Sister Jean in their
corner. First-year coach Drew Valentine’s squad is constructed of
everything that makes March “mad,” with a host of blue-collar workers
led by Lucas Williamson, one of the best two-way guards in the country. The Ramblers
have the perfect setup game in the first round against an Ohio State
team that has lost four of its last five games, including an upset loss
to Penn State in the second round of the Big Ten tournament. The
Ramblers don’t have great size, but they’re skilled and scrappy, a
dangerous combination come March.
The sleeper: Loyola Chicago always makes sure we don’t
forget about the Ramblers — and Sister Jean — in March. Though the
Ramblers are merely the 10th seed here, they’re the 24th-ranked team in
the country per the Pomeroy ratings and have been particularly stingy on
defense under first-year head coach Drew Valentine. Though it's a much
different cast of characters than the Loyola that went to the Final Four
a few years back, and even last season when they upset No. 1 seed
Illinois in the second round, guard Lucas Williamson is a 40 percent
3-point shooter this season and one of the players you would trust most
in March to make a big shot. Loyola’s culture is all about confidence,
and the Ramblers got a pretty favorable first-round matchup against No. 7
seed Ohio State. If they can get it rolling again, look out.
Loyola Chicago is pitted against Ohio State in the No. 7
vs. No. 10 matchup. The Ramblers look to make another run in March,
something that’s almost been expected of them. Meanwhile, Delaware found
its way back to the Tournament for the first time since 2012 as it
faces off against second-seeded Villanova.
2. Malaki Branham, Ohio State | 6-foot-5, 180-pound freshman
wing | Rank: 20 vs. Lucas Williamson, Loyola Chicago | 6-foot-4,
205-pound senior wing | Rank: NR
This is probably my favorite, pure one-on-one matchup of the first
round. Branham, the Big Ten’s Freshman of the Year, has been an
outstanding offensive guard since the start of conference play,
averaging 16 points per game while shooting 52.3 percent from the field
and 47 percent from 3. More of a slasher than pull-up artist, Branham
isn’t a wildly explosive athlete, but he does a great job of getting
defenders off balance and driving in a straight line using long strides
and finishing at the rim with his length. Part of why he’s able to get
to the rim is that opponents now really have to account for the threat
of his jumper, especially off the catch. Scouts love his mix of length
and scoring prowess and see him as an eventual first-round pick, be it
in 2022 or 2023.
Having said that, Branham really needs to improve at a drastic level
on defense. Ohio State is about seven points per 100 possessions worse
defensively, per Pivot Analysis, when Branham is on the court versus
when he’s off it, and you can actually really feel why that’s the case.
The tape matches the numbers. Branham’s focus on defense can waver,
especially off the ball. He needs to be fully engaged against Loyola
Chicago because Ohio State desperately needs whatever defense it can get
on the floor.
That’s a particular problem against Williamson, one of the toughest,
most experienced guards in college basketball. He was on the Loyola
Final Four team back in 2018 as a sixth-man freshman, and he’s still
here doing exactly what his team asks of him. Williamson is never going
to beat himself, and he’s really developed over the years as a pull-up
shot creator, averaging 14 points and shooting nearly 40 percent from 3.
On top of that, he’s going to get right in your face and make your life
miserable on the defensive end. He’s aggressive, and he’s about as
disruptive a guy as you’ll find. The back-to-back Missouri Valley
Defensive Player of the Year, Williamson has been right on the edge of
my top 100 for the entire season despite being a 23-year-old senior and
will assuredly be on that list by the time players decide to return to
school as opposed to entering the 2022 draft. I think Williamson is one
of the most underappreciated players in the country, a genuine star
whose numbers would look way better if he didn’t play on one of the
slowest-paced teams in the tourney.
If Branham can score on Williamson, it would say a lot to scouts
about how ready he is on the offensive end to be a contributor and
potentially set him up with a first-round grade from many teams before
the pre-draft process starts. This is an enormous test for him and will
tell scouts a lot of what they need to know.
The Ramblers have become kind of a staple in the college basketball
world in March as they reached the Final Four in 2018 and upset No. 1
seed Illinois in the second round of last year’s tournament. I think
they can make some noise again this year. The Ramblers are very
efficient on offense but their defense is even better. Stylistically,
they match up very well with the Buckeyes. Ohio State’s defense this
season has ranked outside of the top 100 and, honestly, there is an
argument that they might not even be in the top 150. Loyola should be
able to score here and with an expected gameplan to slow down E.J.
Liddell and this Buckeyes offense (easier said than done), it’s not hard
to see why the Ramblers are favored here. Also, Ohio State is banged up
as Kyle Young and Zed Key could miss or be limited in Friday’s game.
First round: vs. No. 7 Ohio State on Friday in Pittsburgh (12:15 p.m., CBS)
Record: 25-7, 13-5 Missouri Valley
How they got here: By continuing the excellence
established under former coach Porter Moser thanks to a seamless
transition to the next Loyola coaching star, Drew Valentine,
the youngest coach in Division I basketball at 30. Valentine, older
brother of NBA player and former Michigan State star Denzel Valentine,
took a solid roster facing some losses and question marks and led the
Ramblers to a better-than-solid season. This team fell in hard-fought
losses to Michigan State and Auburn in the Bahamas in November, but
improved and was again the class of the league it is soon departing –
Loyola steps up to the Atlantic 10 next season. This is Loyola’s first
back-to-back NCAA appearances since the early 1960s.
What you need to know: It starts with defense for
Loyola, as usual, and this team is No. 22 in defensive efficiency. It no
longer leads the nation in scoring defense, as it did last season (56.1
points per game allowed), but the Ramblers have gotten especially
stingy since February. That includes holding Evansville to 31 points –
the fewest since allowing 26 to Beloit in 1952 (!) The defense starts
with Lucas Williamson,
the 6-4 super senior guard who was part of Loyola’s 2018 Final Four
run. Actually, everything starts with Williamson, who is tops in scoring
(14.0 per game), rebounding (5.0), 3-pointers (72 at 39.6 percent),
steals (41) and is second with 95 assists. Loyola shoots 38.3 percent
from long range as a team, led by Braden Norris (64 for 1487, 43.5 percent).
Spotlight on: Princeton transfer forward Ryan
Schweiger has been a key addition, and his performance off the bench
often helps tell the story of how Loyola plays overall. His 13-point
effort in a 64-58 MVC championship game win over Drake improved Loyola
to 12-1 when he scores in double figures and 12-3 when he hits two or
more 3-pointers. He averages 9.2 points a game and is 39.3 percent (46
of 117) from long range.
Lucas Williamson
is the biggest “known commodity” on the Loyola Chicago roster. He is
the Ramblers’ best player, a two-time All-Conference selection, a
two-time MVC Defensive Player of the Year, and was a freshman when the
program made the Final Four in 2018. The biggest X-Factor for first-year
head coach Drew Valentine,
though, will be the play of point guard Braden Norris. The former
Oakland guard was an unsung piece last season but emerged as an All-MVC
caliber talent this time around.
Norris averaged a career-high 10.3 points per game while displaying
his usual clean stroke from beyond the arc. He shot a blistering
64-for-147 (43.5 percent) from three while leading the Ramblers in
assists. He pairs with Williamson as the top two offensive weapons for
one of the most balanced squads in America. Loyola Chicago remains
defensively-oriented this season but ranks seventh nationally in
effective field-goal percentage; Norris ranks 111th in true-shooting
percentage and 277th in assist rate.
More importantly than anything else, though, Norris always seems to
show up in the biggest games of his career. Over three collegiate
seasons, the 6-0 guard is…
36-for-72 (50 percent) from three in 14 KenPom Tier-A games
75-for-167 (44.9 percent) from three in 33 KP Tier-A/B games
27-for-54 (50 percent) in 11 career conference and NCAA Tournament games
If he keeps it going in big games, the Ramblers are tough to beat.
OSU is looking to bounce back from
last year’s loss to 15-seed Oral Roberts. Behind one of the top defenses
in college basketball, Loyola is now a perennial favorite to win at
least one tournament game. And you can’t forget about Sister Jean,
Loyola’s 102-year-old good luck charm.
Darian DeVries, Drake head coach. There may be
multiple suitors for a 46-year-old Midwesterner and two-time Missouri
Valley Conference coach of the year whose Bulldogs have won 94 games
(and counting) in his four seasons. The metrics didn’t love Drake as
much this season, but DeVries directed a near-top 30 offense in 2020-21
and his group pulled off an NCAA Tournament win before bowing out to a
USC team that reached the Elite Eight. Will the contract be an issue?
DeVries signed an extension through 2028-29 only a year ago. You
wouldn’t think a mid-major coach would agree to anything with a massive
buyout — the terms of the deal aren’t known, as Drake is a private
school — nor would a school like Missouri be all that dissuaded by one.
But it’s a detail to deal with.
Dana Ford, Missouri State head coach. We’ve noted
previously how the 37-year-old has rebooted both Tennessee State and
Missouri State successfully. He’s an Illinois native and naturally has
built connections within Missouri state lines over the previous four
years. Ford checks every familiarity box. He hasn’t worked at a
power-conference program, even as an assistant; does that give anyone
pause, given how grueling on all fronts the SEC is fast becoming? If
Missouri administrators have done their homework and due diligence,
chances are they have a pretty good handle on those answers, given that
Ford is basically in the neighborhood already.
Sources told SI that some potential replacements for Martin
include North Texas head coach Grant McCasland, Baylor assistant Jerome
Tang and Drake head coach Darian DeVries.
Besides the obvious name of Drake assistant Marty Richter at Florida
Gulf Coast, other names I’ve heard for the FGCU job are: USC associate
head coach Chris Capko, Baylor assistant John Jakus, and Florida
assistant Erik Pastrana.
We’ll have more to say about Similarity when we can study actual
matchups, but two more results stand out for now. First, the teams most
similar to Loyola-Chicago reflect the Ramblers’ thudding pace as well as
their long-distance shooting skills:
Michigan 2011 (beat 9-seed Tennessee)
Valparaiso 2013 (lost to 3-seed Michigan State)
Richmond 2011 (beat 5-seed Vanderbilt and 13-seed Morehead State)
Davidson 2008 (beat three teams, including two giants)
Loyola’s four best comps combined for six tournament wins. We think
that’s more evidence it’s an underdog to take very seriously.
Drew Valentine, Loyola -- Athletic director Steve Watson didn't try
to get excessively clever or cute when Moser split last spring. ... He
elevated Valentine -- now all of age 30 -- to take the reins and his new
coach proved that he knew all the dance steps. ... The Ramblers
weathered a rough end in Missouri Valley regular-season play to win the
conference tourney and its automatic NCAA slot.
The grand conundrum at LU will happen if Valentine and the
rosary beads of Sister Jean push through to the Sweet Sixteen or beyond.
... Then, Valentine becomes a prominent presence on the future scopes
of more moneyed, needier programs across the land. ... And what do
Watson and associates counter with? ... A lifetime pass on the CTA's Red
Line? ... Success can be such a witches brew.
