Primarily a collection of news links about all 12 Missouri Valley League teams on a daily basis, culled from online newspapers, school athletic websites, the conference website, and school newspapers, plus some other content from time to time.
MVC tourney predicted champ: Bradley (#2 seed) Dates: March 6-9 Location:
St. Louis, MO 2024 tourney champ: Drake (#2 seed) Fun fact: each
of past 3 championship schools won back-to-back titles Seeding: 5 of
past 6 champs were not #1 seed After making each of the last 4 title games and wrapping up a 27-3 regular
season last Sunday you would think that Drake is the 1 top seed in the
entire nation that I SHOULD go with…but history says otherwise. This tourney
has been unkind to #1 seeds, and the only school to ever win 3 of these in a
row was Southern Illinois from 1993-1995. Over the past 2 months the
Bulldogs have won 15 of 16 with just a 2-PT home loss, so I will go with the
team that gave them that loss. Bradley looked quite beatable a month ago
when they lost 3 in a row to UIC/Northern Iowa/Belmont by an average of 13+
PPG, but they got back on track by winning 6 of their final 7. There are
some teams that require a deep-dive to discover the secret to their success
but that is not the case for the Braves: their 40.9 3P% is #1 in the nation,
and they have 4 seniors who each started 30+ games this season.
Conference Tournament action continues as Lipscomb and North Alabama have
advanced to the ASun Championship game as the top two seeds. The Missouri
Valley also got underway with its opening round today and some big
quarterfinal games tomorrow.
2. Most interesting mid-major: I picked McNeese State, which held up
pretty well. Will Wade’s team is 25-6, easily won the Southland and is
rolling toward a second straight NCAA Tournament experience, but other
worthwhile candidates have emerged here.
Such as UC San Diego, one of KenPom’s highest-ranked mid-majors with the
sort of turnover-forcing defense (third nationally, per KenPom) typically
befitting our favorite Cinderellas. Or
Drake, which won the Missouri Valley in Ben McCollum’s first season in Division
I, keyed by being in the top 15 nationally in free-throw attempt rate and
the top five in defensive steal rate. VCU has a solid at-large case should
it not win the Atlantic 10 tournament, and should any of George Mason,
Dayton or Saint Joseph’s do so instead, all three could win games in March.
Other preseason staff votes: Arkansas State,
Bradley, Grand Canyon, Princeton, Saint Joseph’s, Saint Louis
Only regular season meeting between top seed Drake and
Southern Illinois saw a tight game before the Bulldogs pulled away
in the final 4 minutes or so in Carbondale...
Two great shot making teams in Illinois State and
Belmont play a rubber match after a thrilling regular season split
that saw a combined 45% 3PT shooting and the lowest efficiency rating by
either side 1.15 PPP....
Murray State was swept by Bradley in the regular season, but
was up 16 in the 2H in Peoria just a few weeks ago before a total
collapse...
Well Roger Powell and Valpo depantsed me (as well as UIC) last
night, as I thought UIC’s frontcourt would be the dominant factor in that
game, and it turned out to be the total opposite....Valpo has one big edge
in this quarterfinal matchup with Northern Iowa...
Today, Drake begins its final trek toward an NCAA berth via the Missouri
Valley tournament. The Bulldogs are a credible at-large contender, so bubble
teams will be rooting for them to finish off an automatic bid.
In the Mix: Boise State,
Drake, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San DiegoShould Be In
In The Mix
Drake Profile Strengths: Gaudy overall record, two key power conference
wins, great resume metrics.. Profile Weaknesses: Three Q3 losses, only five Q1/Q2 games. Looking Ahead: The Bulldogs dodged a giant bullet on Sunday,
squeaking by Missouri State (the MVC’s last place team) in overtime for the
second time this season. Drake is now 27-3 overall and carries the distinct
honor of being the only undefeated team against the top two quadrants in the
country (5-0). The Bulldogs’ win over Vanderbilt continues to age well.
Getting to 29 wins while reaching the Arch Madness title game should be
enough, but nothing is certain while other bid stealers lurk. At minimum,
their resume metrics strongly indicate the profile of an at-large team.
If you care about March Madness upsets, you need to start spotting potential
Cinderellas now, and we’re here to help. With conference tournaments getting
underway, this is the time to scout Davids across the country and assess
their slingshots. And while it’s preliminary, we already have some big news:
There are a lot of long shots packing powerful Goliath-killing punches out
there this year — far more than in 2024 or 2023.
For
the past two decades, we have been using analytics to predict NCAA Tournament upsets. Using our
statistical model, Slingshot, developed with the help of the Furman
University Mathematics Department, we examine matchups from past tournaments
to isolate the factors crucial to underdog victories. Then we identify
emerging longshots who carry those traits.
We’re beginning with this rundown of mid-majors you should root for now if
you want to see as many upsets as possible in the second half of this month.
We’ll rank them by their Underdog Rating, which is the percentage chance
Slingshot gives a squad of beating an average tournament opponent that’s at
least five seeds higher.
Drake Bulldogs
Missouri Valley
Underdog Rating: 58.9
Drake is single-handedly proving that the difference between Division I and
Division II isn’t nearly as vast as you’d think. First-year coach Ben
McCollum won four D-II national championships at Northwest Missouri State,
and with the help of three key players from his old squad, he hasn’t missed
a beat at Drake. The Bulldogs are 27-3, including 17-3 in the Missouri
Valley Conference, the top mark in the league.
Even better than the Bulldogs’ 27 wins? The way they get them — at least
from Slingshot’s perspective. They rank among the nation’s top 21 teams in
forcing turnovers, offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding, which
gives them a massive edge in possessions. Drake also plays at the nation’s
slowest pace, which makes that possession advantage even more pronounced.
After all, in a game where each team has the ball less often than usual,
each trip up or down the floor matters more.
Add it all up, and Drake profiles as an epic underdog: Their Underdog Rating
is nearly twice as high as any team that made last year’s field as an
11-seed or lower. Drake will be a nightmare for any opponent … well,
maybe except for Lamar.
The Bulldogs are unquestionable one of the best stories in college
basketball this season.
After more than a decade of dominating the Division-II level at Northwest
Missouri State, Ben McCollum finally got his shot at the D-I level when
Drake offered him their head coaching position last spring. Bulldog fans
weren’t certain that a D-II coach was the right choice to replace Darian
DeVries, who bolted for West Virginia after an extremely successful run in
Des Moines. They were even less sold when McCollum announced that he would
be bringing four players with him from Northwest Missouri State, and that
those four players would all be starters. Some fans sent angry emails to
athletic director Brian Hardin, and others started mockingly referring to
the program as “D-II Drake” on social media.
It’s worked out pretty well.
Drake’s 27 wins are tied for the most of any team in the country, and they
recently wrapped up just their third outright regular season conference
championship in their 111-year program history.
Despite all this, Drake has played just one Quadrant-I game all season (a
neutral court win over Vanderbilt) and would instantly become one of the
most debated at-large candidates in the country if it fails to cut down the
nets in St. Louis.
The Missouri Valley has given us a 1-seed vs. 2-seed championship game in
each of the last four seasons, with Drake winning as the 2-seed the last two
years. Bubble boys should be pulling for the Bulldogs to win this thing, but
if they’re going to lose, you want them to lose early.
Projected in: Albany, Ball State, Columbia, Fairfield,
Fairleigh Dickinson, FGCU, Gonzaga, Grand Canyon, Green Bay, Hawaii,
Harvard, High Point, James Madison, Lehigh, Middle Tennessee, Missouri
State, Montana State, Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, North
Carolina-Greensboro, South Dakota State, Southeastern Louisiana, Southern,
Tennessee Tech, UNLV, UTSA
On the bubble: Belmont, Drake, Murray State, Portland,
Princeton, South Florida
The MVC is pretty unlikely to be a bid-stealer on Selection Sunday, but it’s
extremely close with most of the upper tier of the league on the tournament
bubble.
Missouri State is currently the league’s automatic bid, but it’s in a
three-way tie for first with Drake and Murray State (2-0 against Drake, 1-1
against Murray State). To make things even more intriguing, Belmont and
Illinois State are tied for fourth place, just one game behind first.
With two games left in league play before the MVC tournament next week,
things can get pretty spicy!
Illinois State’s at Missouri State on Thursday, with the potential to cause
a big swing in the standings and conference tournament seeding.
Regular season champions Drake are the favorites in the
Missouri Valley Tournament, but they played with fire a few times in
conference play, winning four games in overtime. The Bulldogs, who
finished the regular season with a 27-3 record, are viewed as a
potential at-large team in the NCAA Tournament after going undefeated in
non-conference play.
If Drake doesn’t win Arch Madness, keep an incredibly close eye on Illinois State.
The Redbirds have the second-best offense in conference
games, according to KenPom’s offensive efficiency rating, and shoot a
conference-best 57.1 percent on two-pointers. While they’re one of the
slower-paced teams in college basketball, they don’t turn the ball over
often and are incredibly good at creating open shots for their best
player, Chase Walker.
Walker is the engine that makes Illinois State’s offense
go. They’re lethal across the board when he’s on the floor, but the
Redbirds look awful when he’s not playing. Walker leads the Missouri
Valley in usage rate. Still, he’s one of the better players in true
shooting percentage, indicating a unique player capable of creating most
of a team’s offense.
The Redbirds will need Walker to show up in St. Louis, as
a potential matchup against Drake awaits in the third round of the
conference tournament. Walker averaged 23.5 points on 66.7 percent
shooting in two earlier games against Drake.
-Drake needed overtime to get by Missouri State on their home floor,
and while they won it was the second straight game where they struggled
against a very weak team. Some say this would have been a quad 5 loss.
But, they did hold serve, they did get the win, and I think Drake
should be inside the bubble and in the field even if they lose in the
Missouri Valley Tournament.
