What's Up In The Missouri Valley: What's Up In The Missouri Valley 1/10/2024

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Wednesday, Jan 10th--Hoops HD

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-INDIANA STATE AT DRAKE (Missouri Valley). These look to be the two best teams in the Missouri Valley, and Indiana State in particular looks to be a team that can land inside the bubble, but for that to happen they need to come close to winning out. This should be a fun one tonight.

1/10/24 WEDNESDAY NEWS AND NOTES--Staring at the Floorboards

Fascinating major MVC battle in Des Moines with Valley undefeated Indiana State looking to establish a new pecking order against the reigning champion Drake. Both games were extremely tight and heated contests, but this is a game where Drake is really going to miss the dribble creation of Penn. ISU plays arguably the deepest drop coverage in the entire country, as Schertz is desperate to keep Avila out of foul trouble (team wide foul trouble, particularly with Avila, has been an ongoing issue for the Trees). That deep drop means ISU surrenders the one of the highest midrange and off the dribble rates in the country (they actually have the highest dribble rate allowed in the country per Synergy data), and while Drake is an elite midcourt offense thanks to DeVries, they lack consistent dribble creation (in fact DeVries’ lack of handle has to be the biggest knock on his NBA scouting sheet)- but more on that in a bit. Drake will also drop Brodie a good deal, but they’re far more aggressive defending the ball, and ball pressure has frequently unwound ISU’s elite rim and 3 halfcourt offense. Of course Avila’s ability to play at the “high post hub” (as Schertz refers to it) is an automatic defense unpacker, which is precisely what happened against ultra compact UNI, where the Sycamores blistered the nets to the tune of 15-34 from 3 off 8 Avila assists. Jacobson was unwilling to engage and expose the rim to ISU’s lethal cutting, and chose to take his chances with ISU chucking the 3. It did not work out. Conversely, Avila struggles with physicality in the post, and I would expect a good dose of Brodie on that end to try to elicit fouls (as noted, the whistle is going to play a huge role in this game). Despite DeVries’ suspect handle, he still has a very favorable matchup and could likely singlehandedly win this game for Drake, as ISU’s iso and passive ball screen defense is incredibly shoddy (and DeVries’ efficiency numbers there are very strong). Gray is probably the best option defensively against him, and while Schertz has praised his defense, he’s clearly not well versed in the offensive playbook, and that has really capped his minutes since becoming eligible. In short, both offenses should have some advantages IF Avila can stay out of foul trouble and force Brodie’s engagement. Situationally I’m sure Schertz would have preferred Drake not get worked over at Belmont on Sunday ahead of this game, but the Trees did avoid any weather related travel issues, as they stayed in Iowa after the victory over UNI Sunday.