What's Up In The Missouri Valley: What's Up In The Missouri Valley 3/19/2021

Dreaming up a Final Four without major-conference teams--Mid-Major Madness

If you’re looking for a true mid-major team out of this region, try looking at the Drake Bulldogs. They lost just one game all season with a fully healthy squad, and they might get one of their key injured pieces back for the tournament in star ShanQuan Hemphill. Though a First Four to Final Four run seems unlikely, it’s been done before.
Probability to make the Final 4:

Gonzaga:

FiveThirtyEight Probability: 55%
BPI Probability: 48%
Garrett Scale: 60%

Drake:

FiveThirtyEight Probability: <.1%
BPI Probability: .2%
Garrett Scale: .5%

Midwest

There are a couple dark horse candidates here.

Let’s start with San Diego State. The Aztecs are currently as hot as any team in the country, having won 14 straight games, the second-longest active streak to Gonzaga.

They’re actually the fourth-highest KenPom-rated team in the Midwest region, behind only Illinois, Houston, and fellow mid-major Loyola . They allow the sixth-lowest opponent shooting percentage in the nation. All that to say: this is still a really good team.
Could it be Loyola?

There’s another fantastic team on the 8 line in the Loyola Ramblers. You might have heard of them from three years ago. Well they’re back, and as our head honcho Russ writes, they’re much better than that Final Four team. Heck, they’re the ninth-ranked team in KenPom, and they have the top adjusted defense in the entire country. Wow.

The key is that second matchup against Illinois, because as good as the metrics say the Ramblers are, the Illini are one of the best teams in the country and could beat just about anyone with their best game. The game would be full of fascinating matchups, and my favorite would be Krutwig and Cockburn down low, each with a different style (and a different build). In order to advance, Loyola would undoubtedly need to have one of its best offensive games of the year against the Illini, who are also elite defensively. Loyola has at times shown tremendous offensive strength but has been a bit inconsistent down the stretch.

If they can pull the upset there, it’s not crazy to see them in the Final Four with their incredible defense, which will keep them in any game. Next could be a test against a red-hot Oklahoma State and Cade Cunningham, though that is an inexperienced team that BPI doesn’t like at all.

The bottom of the bracket is wide open, and a number of teams could be left standing. The Ramblers’ seniors Krutwig and MVC Defensive POY Lucas Williamson would know exactly what it takes to get to the next stage — they’ve done it before — and could easily step up and take it.

Also, a Sister Jean-backed Loyola squad is UNDEFEATED before reaching the Final Four, and at the ripe age of 101, she’s (vaccinated and) back for more blood. These are things that cannot be overlooked.

San Diego State:

FiveThirtyEight: 5%
BPI: 3.1%
Garrett: 5%

Loyola Chicago:

FiveThirtyEight: 3%
BPI: 3.9%
Garrett: 4.5%

Lou Henson All-Americans--Valley Hoops Insider

Tourney Talk: HoopsHD interviews Bradley SR F Nyjah White--Hoops HD
Practice Day--bradleybraves.com
Women’s Basketball Set For NCAA First Round Matchup With Texas--bradleybraves.com

Drake tops Wichita State for first NCAA win in 50 years--Associated Press
Drake faces USC in First Round--Associated Press
Drake storms back to beat Wichita State in First Four--Mid-Major Madness
2021 NCAA Tournament Viewing Guide: The First Four--Blogging The Bracket

11. Wichita State Shockers (16-5, 11-2 American At-Large)
vs. 11. Drake Bulldogs (25-4, 15-3 MVC At-Large)

6:27 p.m. ET on TBS (March Madness Live game link) at Mackey Arena (Brian Anderson and Jim Jackson with Allie LaForce reporting)

In their last trip to the NCAAs, the Shockers, then coached by Gregg Marshall, fell in an 81-75 13-over-4 upset to, uh, Marshall. The 2016 Wichita State entrant won in this round and then claimed an 11-over-6 upset of Arizona before falling to Miami in the second round. As for the Bulldogs, their last NCAA appearance came in 2008 when they were part of one of the more remarkable days in March Madness history. Assigned to one of two 4/5 seed pods in Tampa, Drake lost a 101-99 overtime thriller to Western Kentucky. By the end of the day, the Bulldogs, UConn (to San Diego), Vanderbilt (to Siena), and Clemson (to Villanova)—the higher-seeded teams—had all fallen.

Adding to the spice level of this game, their history as Missouri Valley rivals ended when Wichita State departed for the American Athletic Conference after the 2016-17 season. The Shockers have won the last 11 meetings in the series, with Drake’s last win being a 93-86 triple-OT home triumph way back on January 28, 2011. Hopefully, this game will be just as good.

NCAA upsets: Creighton, Virginia face tough matchups in West--The Athletic

No. 6 USC Trojans (-6.5) vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs*

Upset Chance: 30 percent

Here’s a few words about Drake, which has been hurt worse by recent injuries than any team in the NCAA Tournament. ShanQuan Hemphill, the Bulldogs’ leading scorer and rebounder, broke his left foot during a game against Northern Iowa on February 10, and 12 days later, Roman Penn, their starting point guard, went down, also with a fractured left foot. Drake’s scoring has held up surprisingly well in the absence of its two main cogs, but its defensive efficiency has plunged, and after starting the season 18-0, the Bulldogs went 7-4 down the stretch.

Penn is out for the season, but Hemphill is on track to play in the NCAA Tournament. So we have hauled out of mothballs a with-or-without-you method we developed back in 2012, when Kendall Marshall of North Carolina and Fab Melo of Syracuse (R.I.P.) were both sidelined at the very end of the season. And we’ve tried to estimate the effect on Drake’s scoring margin of playing with Hemphill but without Penn. It’s a rough guess; we don’t know if, when, or in what kind of shape Hemphill will return. But that’s incorporated in our estimate here. It wouldn’t be fair to treat Drake as though it’s the same team it was at the beginning of the calendar year.

Even so, our statistical model gives the Bulldogs a sizable chance to beat a tough (and underseeded) favorite in USC. Here’s why: USC’s signature strength is its offensive rebounding – the Trojans grab 35.7 percent of their own missed shots, which ranks 10th in the nation. Usually, as you will find us saying many times in these previews, that’s the single most important protection an overdog can have against long shots; favorites with this kind of profile literally almost never lose to underdogs who also specialize in offensive rebounding or who don’t have any particularly strong killer characteristics. But one family of low seeds can drive power Goliaths crazy: slow Davids who limit opponents’ looks. These killers tend to collect scads of offensive rebounds, shoot few threes but make them at a high rate and ratchet down shooting percentages allowed. However non-analytical it is to say this, that’s a package that looks smart on the court. And against powerful favorites, it has produced memorable upsets where shrewd underdogs grind down more imposing opponents. Think St. Mary’s vs. Villanova in 2010, Wichita State vs. Gonzaga in 2013 and Kansas in 2015, Yale vs. Baylor in 2016 … and USC edging SMU by 1 point in 2017. Even some losses feel similar, like Harvard against North Carolina in 2015.

Drake would fit right into this lineage. (In contrast, a random bubble team such as Colorado State would have had about a 15 percent chance to beat USC.) Slingshot can’t guarantee you a first-round upset here, but it sure has a good idea what the game will look like.

Drake makes two double digit comebacks and then hold off Wichita State--The Comeback
Dramatic ‘First Four’ Win--Valley Hoops Insider
Drake Basketball: Joe Yesufu, Bulldogs provide first thriller of March Madness in Wichita State win--Heat Check CBB
Drake digs in, defends, dances forward in NCAA tournament--Cedar Rapids Gazette
Region natives make impact in Drake's first NCAA Tournament win in 50 years--NWI Times
NCAA Tournament: Tremell Murphy, Darnell Brodie deliver big shots late to lift Drake over Wichita State--Des Moines Register
Bulldogs Advance With Thrilling First Four Victory Over Wichita State--godrakebulldogs.com

Women’s Basketball Opens WNIT Friday Night Versus Milwaukee--godrakebulldogs.com

Illinois State junior guard Dedric Boyd enters NCAA transfer portal--The Pantagraph
Illinois State men's basketball with four players in transfer portal--Vidette Online

Watch now: Illinois State women's basketball opens WNIT play against Tulane--The Pantagraph
What you need to know before the WNIT: A complete postseason history of Redbird women's basketball--Vidette Online

Meeting Josh Schertz--Valley Hoops Insider
ISU meets its man as Schertz is introduced as men's basketball coach--Terre Haute Tribune Star
Schertz convinces Richardson to stay at ISU--Terre Haute Tribune Star
Todd Aaron Golden: Drama is done, time to give Schertz the fresh start he deserves--Terre Haute Tribune Star
ISU introduces new men's basketball coach--Indiana Statesman

Mid-Major Stars to watch in the NCAA Tournament--Mid-Major Madness

Cameron Krutwig - Loyola Chicago

Some say Krutwig has an ugly face but his game is undeniably beautiful to watch. Krutwig averaged 10 points per game during the historic Loyola Chicago Final Four run in 2018. He has been a constant star for Porter Moser for the last four years. Krutwig is looking to end his Rambler career on a magical March run. Krutwig isn’t your normal center. He sort of resembles a poor man’s Nikola Jokic at the mid-major level. Krutwig’s basketball intelligence is next level as he excels at finding open shooters and cutters at the perfect time. Krutwig is one of the more efficient scores in college basketball averaging 15.0 points per game on 57% shooting. While Krutwig is not very athletic, he uses his intelligence and skills to create angles and forces a lot of fouls. Getting opposing bigs into foul trouble is a notorious skill for him. The Ramblers have a team capable of winning multiple games in the NCAA Tournament. A potential second-round matchup between Krutwig and Illinois’s Kofi Cockburn will be one of the most fascinating player matchups.

2021 NCAA Men’s Tournament Viewing Guide: First Round Friday Afternoon--Blogging The Bracket

Midwest 9. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (17-8, 11-6 ACC Automatic) vs. 8. Loyola Chicago Ramblers (24-4, 16-2 MVC Automatic)

4 p.m. on TBS (March Madness Live game link) at Hinkle Fieldhouse (Jim Nantz and Bill Raftery with Tracy Wolfson reporting)

The Ramblers are back in the field for the first time since their 2018 Final Four run, while the Yellow Jackets last qualified (and won a game) in 2010.

Column: Loyola — 3 years after a historic NCAA Tournament run — faces another uphill challenge in Indianapolis--Chicago Tribune
No. 17 Loyola eyes respect as Ga. Tech grapples with uncertainty--CBS Sports
'We're definitely the underdog': Loyola hoping to re-create magic of 2018 run--Daily Herald
March Madness Day 2 primer: NCAA Tournament first round schedule, times, channels, predictions--Heat Check CBB

No. 9 Georgia Tech vs. No. 8 Loyola Chicago (-5.5)

Time: 4 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS
Venue: Hinkle Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, Ind.)

How will Moses Wright’s absence impact the Yellow Jackets? Josh Pastner’s Georgia Tech team enters as one of the hottest teams in the bracket but the loss of Wright, the ACC player of the year, is a gigantic hit. With Sister Jean in the crowd and Cameron Krutwig on the floor, Loyola figures to be in decent shape for another March Madness victory.

Andy Dieckhoff (1-3; 2-2) — SU: Loyola Chicago; ATS: Loyola Chicago
Brian Rauf (1-3; 1-3) — SU: Loyola Chicago; ATS: Loyola Chicago
Connor Hope (1-3; 2-2) — SU: Loyola Chicago; ATS: Loyola Chicago
Eli Boettger (2-2; 1-3) — SU: Loyola Chicago; ATS: Georgia Tech
Lukas Harkins (2-2; 1-3) — SU: Loyola Chicago; ATS: Georgia Tech