What's Up In The Missouri Valley: What's Up In The Missouri Valley 3/11/2021

It’s Not a Safety N.E.T.--Valley Hoops Insider

Four Bradley men's basketball players are in the NCAA transfer portal--Peoria Journal Star

Drake women's basketball: Bulldogs hope to climb back up Valley ladder at MVC Tournament--Des Moines Register
Bair Named MVC Sixth Player of the Year; Berg Tabbed MVC Newcomer of the Year--godrakebulldogs.com

Samari Curtis Is Transferring--Eville-Ways

Watch now: JuJu Redmond makes first team all-Missouri Valley Conference--The Pantagraph
Where all 10 teams stack up heading into Hoops in the Heartland--Vidette Online
Hoops in the Heartland Tournament Preview: Redbirds Take on the Ramblers--goredbirds.com
Mary Crompton Claims Valley’s Most Improved Player Award--goredbirds.com

Neese latest Sycamore to enter NCAA portal--Terre Haute Tribune Star

Court Report: The tech that can save the NCAA Tournament, how to seed Loyola Chicago and top 10 days of season--CBS Sports

Loyola Chicago to test committee's seeding ideology
I don't think anyone can confidently predict where the selection committee will slot 24-4 Loyola Chicago on Sunday. Some predictive metrics love this team. Loyola Chicago is No. 9 at KenPom, No. 10 in the NET and No. 18 at BPI. Meantime, KPI has it 30th, Sagarin 40th and Strength of Record 43rd.
It's unusual to have a team rank in the top 10 of multiple computers yet still have so much metric disparity. Will the selection committee mostly rely on what the Ramblers have done from a résumé perspective? If so, a 6-4 mark vs. the top two quadrants with potentially zero wins against the field (if Drake doesn't get in) could put them in No. 10-seed territory. But a robust record -- and other metrics suggesting this team is No. 4 seed-good -- suggests the committee might try to split the difference.

I got to thinking about teams in the past who were not given the seed respect they deserved because they lacked nonconference opportunities to validate their standing in predictive metrics. So what are the most remarkable examples of the selection committee ignoring a highly ranked KenPom team and placing it much lower on the overall seed list? Ken Pomeroy was once again gracious with his time and data and supplied me with evidence. Dating back to 1996-97, there have been 29 instances among top-30 KenPom teams in which the seed-line discrepancy between a team's KenPom number on Selection Sunday was five seed lines or greater from where it was placed in the bracket.
The way to transpose this is simple: 1-4 = No. 1 seed, 5-8 = No. 2, 9-12 = No. 3 and so on. Here are the biggest gaps between KenPom, the seed and how those teams performed in the NCAA Tournament. The numbers in parentheses are what seed the teams would be if you only slotted based on predictive ranking.
Year Team KenPom Seed Diff. Finish
2005 Utah St. 20 14 (5) 9 R1
2010 Utah St. 16 12 (4) 8 R1
2012 Belmont 24 14 (6) 8 R1
2017 Wichita St. 8 10 (2) 8 R2
2011 Utah St. 17 12 (5) 7 R1
2011 Belmont 23 13 (6) 7 R1
2014 Tennessee 14 11 (4) 7 S16
Before you go thinking the selection committee got it right because of all the first-round exits, keep in mind those underseeded teams were often forced to play better opponents than they should have -- opponents for the most part ranked higher than they were. Predictive metrics shouldn't solely determine seeding, but a marriage of predictive and résumé results should play into the process re: high or not teams are placed in the bracket. Loyola Chicago will test the committee in precisely this way this weekend. Mark my guess down as a No. 7 seed (though I'd have Loyola on the 6-line).

Year	Team	KenPom	Seed	Diff.	Finish
2005	Utah St.	20	14 (5)	9	R1
2010	Utah St.	16	12 (4)	8	R1
2012	Belmont	24	14 (6)	8	R1
2017	Wichita St.	8	10 (2)	8	R2
2011	Utah St.	17	12 (5)	7	R1
2011	Belmont	23	13 (6)	7	R1
2014	Tennessee	14	11 (4)	7	S16