What's Up In The Missouri Valley: What's Up In The Missouri Valley 3/8/2020

The Morning Dish – Friday, March 6, 2020--Hoopville

Side Dishes
Conference tournament roundup:

Higher seeds won in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, with No. 8 Drake pulling away from No. 9 Illinois State 75-65 and No. 7 Valparaiso holding off No. 10 Evansville 58-55, sending the the Purple Aces home without a Missouri Valley win all year. Adam Glatczk has more on Drake’s win.

Part 5 of our series recalling, researching and reviewing NCAA Tournament Selection Sundays of the past looks at the years 2005-09. Included: Jim Nantz and Billy Packer tee off on the MVC and CAA in 2006, the same year the Valley got four bids but probably (our opinion) should’ve had six.

2005

Last in: 9 Iowa State (18-11), 10 Iowa (21-11), 10 North Carolina State (19-13), 10 Saint Mary’s (25-8), 11 Northern Iowa (21-10), 11 UAB (21-10), 11 UCLA (18-10)

Multi-bid conferences: 12

The selection process received a big change in 2005, with the age-old RPI getting some work done. The formula was (correctly, we would surmise) changed to give an extra bonus to winning road games. Almost immediately, bellyaching commenced when teams like Vermont showed up in the top 30 of the RPI, perhaps cementing the idea that a rating is only as good as how much it preserves preconceived notions of who the best teams should be. (And never mind that the Catamounts would win a game in the NCAA Tournament as a 13 seed). In some ways, it would feel like selection committees would start de-emphasizing the RPI as soon as they corrected it to get it closer to what it probably should’ve been.

The general buzz after the selections in 2005 was that there were few complaints. That wasn’t exactly true; there was griping by some TV analysts, there were some reasonably debatable picks, and one conference especially felt spurned. When all was said and done, though, the selection committee mostly did a solid job in a situation where there were some tough choices.

UAB, Northern Iowa and UCLA were the three lowest-seeded at-larges, with Iowa, North Carolina State and Saint Mary’s a line ahead of them. Iowa State actually was supposed to be a 10 seed, but due to bracketing principles the Cyclones moved up a line while rival Iowa slipped back a seed line, per committee chairman Bob Bowlsby, who also was the athletic director at Iowa.

Northern Iowa was a surprising selection to some as the third team out of the Missouri Valley. At first glance by the numbers, the Panthers were 2-6 against the top 50, 6-7 vs. the top 100, and also had three sub-100 losses, including one below 200. UNI also defeated a Southern Illinois team that ranked in the top 20 in the RPI, won twice over a Missouri State that was just outside the RPI top 50, and won a Bracket Busters game against Western Michigan in February. It may have been between the Panthers and Wichita State (RPI 45) for a spot, but Northern Iowa won in Wichita on the final day of the MVC regular season as Ben Jacobson-not the current Panthers coach, but a star player of the same name-hit a buzzer-beating three-pointer for the win. Northern Iowa also faced three NCAA tourney teams out of conference and defeated NCAA 9 seed Iowa State by 17 in November, took 7 seed Cincinnati to double overtime and lost at 10 seed Iowa by three.

The Panthers were in a number of projections before Selection Sunday, but their pick was still blasted afterwards by ESPN heads, namely Jay Bilas, Digger Phelps and Dick Vitale, who felt Maryland and Notre Dame should’ve been in ahead of UNI. Never mind, of course, that panel included a former Notre Dame coach, a parent of two alums of the school, and a former player in Maryland’s Atlantic Coast Conference. Some others also theorized that Bowlsby helped grease the skids for both Iowa-his current school which made the field with a 7-9 Big Ten mark-and Northern Iowa, where he was once the athletic director. It was pretty ridiculous.

2006

Last in: 10 Alabama (17-12), 10 North Carolina State (21-9), 10 Northern Iowa (23-9), 10 Seton Hall (18-11), 11 George Mason (23-7), 12 Texas A&M (21-8), 12 Utah State (23-8), 13 Air Force (24-6), 13 Bradley (20-10)

Left out: Cincinnati (19-12), Creighton (19-9), Florida State (19-9), Hofstra (24-6), Maryland (19-12), Michigan (18-10), Missouri State (20-8)

Multi-bid conferences: 12

Selection Sunday 2006 was one of the most explosive ones of them all in the nearly 40-year era that the bracket has been revealed to TV fanfare, since CBS began its selection show in 1982. From the season that 2005-06 was, the selections and reaction to them promised to be entertaining; it shouldn’t have been quite as heated as it was. However, a concoction of more worthy at-large teams than bids, a well-meaning committee trying to grasp just what an updated RPI wrought the year before, some surprising conferences offering multiple at-large caliber teams, and a TV media dominated by people who have no understanding of such conferences, all caused fireworks when the bracket was released.

A big story this year was the emergence of the Missouri Valley Conference and Colonial Athletic Association. The MVC was the sixth-rated conference in the country that year-even ahead of the Pac-10- and put a record four teams in the field. The CAA was not far behind-10th in the NCAA’s computers, per the organization’s RPI data archive-and tied its best-ever showing with two bids. And yet, both leagues had plenty of reason to still be disappointed.

Missouri State is widely remembered as the most jilted team this year and among the most noted of all-time. Many can recite it: a 21 RPI, the lowest ever to be left out of the field. The Bears were almost certainly hurt by the committee not knowing what to do with a stronger-than-ever Missouri Valley Conference, which received four bids (including way-underseeded Bradley) but likely deserved six. The Bears were 4-8 against the RPI top 50 and 5-8 against the top 100 per the NCAA, not great numbers, but also with not a single loss worse than on the road by four at 45 RPI and NCAA 8 seed Arkansas. They also won eight of nine down the stretch before an MVC Tournament quarterfinal loss to Northern Iowa, which was solidly in the NCAA field as a 10 seed. The bottom line is a 21 RPI and a finish like MSU’s in a major conference in the top six nationally would’ve been in the field, and everyone knew it.

Of course, far be it from the sport’s media to understand the quality of these teams and their leagues. Jim Nantz and Billy Packer went virtually ballistic on CBS’s selection show, ripping the CAA and MVC, the RPI, and stumping for more ACC teams in the field (of course), such as Florida State and Maryland. Nantz: “Something has gone haywire with this computer system-I mean, the ACC and the Big 12 generated the same number of bids as the Missouri Valley? I don’t buy it.” Packer: “You put Florida State and Maryland in their league, I’d like to know where they’d end up. Do you see any of those four (MVC) teams taking Duke to overtime, at Duke (as FSU did) and beating them on their home court?” More Packer: “Do you think for one second that a Louisville or a Notre Dame (15-13 on the season), two teams that obviously got no consideration whatsoever, wouldn’t be favored against the likes of teams from the Missouri Valley or the Colonial?…(those two leagues) end up with six representatives in the tourney and the ACC and Big 12 end up with eight. You’ve got to be kidding.”

What Packer didn’t mention is that Florida State’s candidacy was hurt by a 300+ rated non-conference schedule, that their win over RPI No. 1 Duke was their only victory over an NCAA Tournament team and was one of just two wins total against so much as the RPI top 75 (the other was against Maryland). Nor did he mention Maryland’s 2-7 record against the top 50, its 7-12 mark vs. the top 100 or its 4-9 road/neutral record. Or that Louisville was 2-10 against the top 50. Or that Notre Dame with its 95 RPI was 1-10 against the top 50 and 5-13 vs. the top 100.

2007

Left out: Air Force (23-8), Bradley (20-12), Drexel (23-8), Florida State (20-12), Kansas State (22-11), Missouri State (22-10), Syracuse (22-10), Washington (19-13), West Virginia (22-9)

Multi-bid conferences: 12

After the success of the Colonial Athletic Association and Missouri Valley Conference backed up the respect they received on Selection Sunday 2006, some might’ve expected the 2006 NCAA Tournament would be a landmark moment in the way future selection committees looked at such teams. Instead, over the next few years selection committees seemed collectively intent on trying to make sure such underdog advancements didn’t happen again any time soon.

For the third straight year, twelve different conferences put at least two teams in the NCAA tourney, but this year was different. In were more teams with double-digit loss totals-11, 12, some even 13 defeats. Moreover, the two leagues that made hay the year before were the definition of the term ‘snub’ in 2007.

For the second straight year the release of the brackets brought a mix of elation and bitterness for the CAA and MVC (and ironically after their performance the year before had softened sentiment about them; Jim Nantz and Billy Packer were much kinder in their assessments this year). Coming off the MVC’s two Sweet 16 teams and the CAA’s Final Four George Mason team the year before, and with strong conference showings again this year, both conferences had every right to expect good things when the brackets came out in 2007.

Instead, both received just two bids. The MVC’s two teams were underseeded (even Southern Illinois as a MVC league best-ever 4 was low given its No. 7 RPI, especially when one looks at the resume of NCAA 2 seed Memphis one spot behind them in the RPI). Meanwhile, the CAA got one of its two bubble teams in, but also joined the Valley with each their own team that had every reason to be disappointed.

Missouri State saw its bubble burst-again. The Bears’ resume certainly wasn’t unimpeachable, but it should’ve been good enough. The initial numbers mixed between fair and good: a 3-5 mark vs. the top 50, 9-9 vs. the top 100, and only one marquee win while going 0-5 against the MVC’s top two teams. That one win, though, happened to be on a neutral court against a Wisconsin team that was good enough to be a 2 seed in the NCAAs. That alone should’ve been a statement, but the real bottom line is this: Missouri State finished third in the sixth-rated conference in the country. If this were the third-place ACC or Big East team we were talking about with a 12-6 conference record, 20 wins and a 38 RPI even in a relative down year for those leagues, the resume would’ve been a virtual cinch for selection. It can only be concluded the Bears-and the MVC-were docked as much for their name as any flaws in MSU’s season.

2008

Left out: Arizona State (19-12), Dayton (21-10), Florida (21-11), Illinois State (24-9), Mississippi (21-10), Ohio State (19-13), VCU (24-7), Virginia Tech (19-13)

Multi-bid conferences: 10

This was the third straight year the Missouri Valley received mixed treatment from the committee, and that might be putting it too politely. Drake won the regular season and tourney titles and was a 5 seed, good for a champion outside the TV conferences until one recognized the MVC was the No. 8 league in the RPI that year, the Bulldogs held a 10 RPI and were 7-1 vs. the top 50 (though just one of those wins was in the top 25). That was the only bid the Valley received, though, as No. 2 team Illinois State was left out.

The Redbirds’ case was hardly airtight, with a 2-5 mark vs. the top 50 and 5-5 against the top 100. There also were four sub-100 losses. By one measure, ISU was 0-5 vs. field and had just two top 50 wins. By another, though, the Redbirds had 15 wins vs. the top 150. For a comparison looking back some years, Manhattan in 1995 saw a 9-4 mark vs. the top 150 cited as a plus; in this season, Oregon had 11 top 150 wins, Kentucky 10. Kansas State had nine. ISU also was 9-3 in its last 12 games, and once again the selective recognition of the numbers from an RPI rank was a frustrating point. In the history of Jerry Palm’s collegerpi.com website that dates back to 1993-94, the last-and only-time a team from the major conferences was left out of the field with an RPI that high was Oklahoma in 1993-94 with a 15-12 record.

2009

Left out: Creighton (26-7), Davidson (26-7), Florida (23-10), Illinois State (24-9), Kansas State (21-11), New Mexico (21-11), Penn State (22-11), Providence (19-13), Rhode Island (22-10), St. Mary’s (26-6), San Diego State (23-9), South Carolina (21-9)

Multi-bid conferences: 9

Illinois State also wasn’t far off for the second straight year; in fact, the Redbirds had better numbers than the year before in some ways with two top 50 wins and a 7-6 record against the top 100, but if Creighton couldn’t get in, one wonders if the committee even considered ISU.

The Morning Dish – Saturday, March 7, 2020--Hoopville
Ten Questions to Consider: Teams Battle For Positioning As Others Fight for a Chance to Dance--Hoopville

Will the Missouri Valley Tournament come down to another thriller between Loyola (Chicago) and Northern Iowa? (MVC Final, Sunday, 2:10 PM EDT, CBS) Top seeds Loyola (Chicago) and Northern Iowa sit on opposite sides of the draw in “Arch Madness.” Both regular season matchups required overtime, with each team winning at home. Conference Player of the Year AJ Green of Northern Iowa made 39.4 percent of his three-point attempts on the regular season, but connected on just 6-of-18 attempts against the Ramblers.

Conference tournament recap: Arch madness lives up to the name, title games set and more--Mid-Major Madness
Valparaiso upsets Loyola-Chicago in wild OT finish; top 3 seeds eliminated in MVC Tournament before semifinals--The Comeback
HappeningHoops.com CBI/CIT Bracketology Number 11 March 6th 2020--Happening Hoops

CBI (16 teams)
Missouri Region (South)

Missouri (14-16 SEC)

SIU (16-15 MVC)

Georgia State (19-12 Sun Belt)

FIU (18-12 CUSA)

CIT (32 teams)
Midwest

*Youngstown (18-15 Horizon)

Valpo (17-15 MVC)

NIU (18-12 MAC)

Marshall (15-15 CUSA)

*EIU (17-15 OVC)

Kansas City (16-14 WAC)

Green Bay (17-15 Horizon)

UIC (17-16 Horizon)

Well, the Missouri Valley went and lost its damn mind yesterday.

#4 seed Bradley (shouts to Marquette alum and Bradley head coach Brian Wardle) is now the top seed remaining in Arch Madness, as #8 Drake, #7 Valparaiso, and #6 Missouri State all advanced out of the quarterfinals yesterday. The question becomes whether #1 seed Northern Iowa becomes a bid thief. The most recent update on Bracket Matrix still has them in the field while appearing on 94 of the 101 entries. It’s unclear how many of them still have them as the MVC autobid, though.

Bradley feeling disrespected ahead of Valley men’s basketball tournament--Peoria Journal Star
From Helsinki to St. Louis: Bradley freshman sparks MVC tournament win--Peoria Journal Star
Unlikely title matchup will cap the wildest Valley tournament ever--Peoria Journal Star
What to look for when Bradley plays Valparaiso in MVC title game--Peoria Journal Star
Bradley returns to MVC championship game, plays Valparaiso--Peoria Journal Star
Analysis: Freshmen step up on both ends in first round win--Bradley Scout
Trio wills Bradley to quarterfinal win--Bradley Scout
Column: Freaky Friday at Arch Madness shows anything can happen--Bradley Scout
Preview: Bradley and Drake face-off on Saturday in an unexpected matchup--Bradley Scout
Q&A: Bradley basketball alumnus Luqman Lundy on being a fan, hanging around the team and MVC tournament madness--Bradley Scout
Analysis: Bigs make monstrous plays in semifinal win--Bradley Scout
Bradley holds off Drake to mark historic return to title game--Bradley Scout
Bradley Defeats Southern Illinois to Advance to Arch Madness Semifinals--bradleybraves.com
Bradley Advances to MVC Championship After 76-66 Win Over Drake--bradleybraves.com

Analysis: Bradley women nearly pulled it off; Team should play in postseason tournament--Bradley Scout
Braves Top Indiana St. 68-59 To Earn Win #21--bradleybraves.com
Women’s Basketball Earns School Record 22nd Win With 71-53 Victory At Evansville--bradleybraves.com

Drake wins Arch Madness opener with balance, gets ready to take shot at top seed--Hoopville
Second day stunner: Drake makes Arch Madness history by toppling No. 1 Northern Iowa--Hoopville
Arch Madness basketball: Drake topples Illinois State to set up another Northern Iowa matchup--Des Moines Register
Arch Madness basketball: Drake stuns top-seeded Northern Iowa in Valley quarterfinals--Des Moines Register
Arch Madness basketball: Bradley halts Drake's Valley tournament run in semifinals--Des Moines Register
Region products lead Drake to upset of Northern Iowa, led by Roman Penn--NWI Times
Men's Basketball Bests Illinois State in MVC Tournament--godrakebulldogs.com
Men's Basketball Knocks Out Top-Seed UNI in MVC Tournament--godrakebulldogs.com
Men's Basketball's MVC Tournament Run Ended In Semifinals--godrakebulldogs.com

Northern Iowa tops Drake in final regular season game--Des Moines Register
Women’s Basketball Drops Regular Season Finale at UNI--godrakebulldogs.com

Buzzer breakdown: Evansville loses to Valparaiso in MVC tournament first round--Evansville Courier & Press
The Aces competed until the final buzzer even though the season ended without an MVC win--Evansville Courier & Press
Aces Lose To Valpo For A Third Time--Evile-Ways
Riley scores 17 points in final college game--gopurpleaces.com

Aces battle, but fall to Illinois State, 68-51--gopurpleaces.com
Aces late rally not enough in loss to Bradley--gopurpleaces.com

MVC Notebook: UNI's Ben Jacobson captures fourth Coach of the Year Award--The Pantagraph
ISU's second-half slump opens door for 75-65 Drake win--Vidette Online
Redbirds Fall in Arch Madness Opener to Drake--goredbirds.com

Illinois State women's basketball handles stubborn Evansville--The Pantagraph
Illinois State's Lexi Wallen takes next step to basketball stardom--The Pantagraph
Lexi Wallen paces Illinois State's women's basketball team to victory at Indiana State--The Pantagraph
Redbirds extend win streak to three after beating Aces--Vidette Online
Redbirds Rally to Complete Season Sweep of Purple Aces--goredbirds.com
Redbirds Defeat Sycamores, Wrap Up Regular Season on Four-Game Win Streak--goredbirds.com

Avoiding turnovers has been key for ISU--Terre Haute Tribune Star
LaRavia status looms over ISU's Arch Madness fate--Terre Haute Tribune Star
ISU can’t escape Upset Friday at Arch Madness--Terre Haute Tribune Star
DOWN IN THE VALLEY: ISU at Arch Madness musings--Terre Haute Tribune Star
Missouri State Takes Down Sycamores In Arch Madness Quarterfinals--gosycamores.com

ISU women battle, but fall short against Bradley--Terre Haute Tribune Star
Indiana State women close regular season with another hard-fought loss--Terre Haute Tribune Star
Sycamores Show Improvement, but Fall Late to Bradley on Thursday--gosycamores.com
Sycamore Rally Falls Short Against Illinois State in Season Finale--gosycamores.com

Ramblers Player Poll: Who’s the Best Dressed? Who’s Always Late? Who Watches the Most Film?--Loyola Phoenix
Arch Madness: No. 7 Seed Valparaiso Stuns No. 2 Seed Loyola--Loyola Phoenix
‘It’s Been Our Achilles Heel All Year’: Free Throws Doom Loyola in Season-Ending, Overtime Loss to Valparaiso at Arch Madness--Loyola Phoenix
Column: Another Year, Another Quiet Loyola Locker Room at Arch Madness--Loyola Phoenix
Valpo Rallies To Stun Loyola, 74-73 In Overtime--loyolaramblers.com

Southern Illinois Pulls Away Late From Loyola, 58-41--loyolaramblers.com
No. 23/21 Missouri State Fends Off Loyola, 72-61--loyolaramblers.com
Bracket Set for 2020 MVC Women's Basketball Tournament--loyolaramblers.com

Bubble Watch: The bid thieves are coming--The Athletic

There’s also the Missouri Valley, where we think Northern Iowa makes for a solid at-large team, but where the Panthers will face an onslaught of decent-to-good mid-major squads in the always-crazy Arch Madness environment this weekend. If Northern Iowa and/or ETSU go down, the bubble as we’ve come to understand it will shrink.

Others
Work to do: Northern Iowa, Utah State, East Tennessee State, Richmond, Rhode Island
Northern Iowa (23-5, 14-4; NET: 36, SOS: 114): You know who doesn’t get the proportional benefit of being its league’s best team for like three months? Northern Iowa. By the time some of you read this, the Panthers will be warming up for their noon ET tip with Drake. The Valley’s bracket setup gives the top six seeds the same bye into the second round. From there, UNI — very much a bubble team, far as we can tell, and one that we’ve reckoned is much better off just winning the conference tournament — will have to win three games in three days to do it. This is rugged and old-fashioned in a charming sort of way, though we assume much of the charm is lost on UNI.

Bubble Watch: Can Northern Iowa still get an at-large bid?--College Basketball Talk

BUBBLE WATCH FOR EVERYONE ELSE
NORTHERN IOWA (NET: 36, NBC: 11): Northern Iowa is in serious trouble now. The Panthers lost to Drake (167) by 21 points, and I’m not sure they did enough this season to be able to survive that loss. UNI has just one Quad 1 win — at Colorado (20) — and they beat South Carolina (63) on a neutral court, but they are 5-3 against the top two Quads. Now, after this loss, they have three Quad 3 losses. I want to see them get an at-large — every one of their non-Quad 1 losses is league game — but there isn’t much else here beyond simply having a 23-6 record. I want to see the Panthers get a shot in the tournament because I’ll always err on the side of the mid-major, but I think that’s a long shot.

The biggest issue is that they are going to be sitting around for a week, watching as the rest of the teams on the bubble go and take their shots at Quad 1 and 2 wins while avoiding the kind of bad loss that they took in their league tournament. We can argue about whether or not that is fair, but it is pointless at the end of the day. UNI probably has not done enough to get in.