What's Up In The Missouri Valley: What's Up In The Missouri Valley 3/5/2020

Missouri St., Indiana St. meet in MVC quarters--Associated Press
Bubbles, Sitting on the Fence and Brackets Part 4: 2000-04--Hoopville

Part 4 of our look back at Selection Sundays and NCAA Tournament bubbles over the last 35 years moves into a new decade with our review of 2000-04. Strength of schedule becomes king, Barry Hinson has his first notable snub, and Butler in 2002 and Utah State in 2004 beg the question of just how much do teams like them need to win to get a bid.

2000

Last at-large in by seed: 10 Seton Hall (20-9 record), 10 UNLV (23-7), 11 Dayton (22-8), 11 Pepperdine (24-8), 12 Indiana State (22-9), 12 St. Bonaventure (21-9)

Left out: Arizona State (18-12), Bowling Green (21-7), BYU (19-10), Kent State (19-7), Notre Dame (18-14), SW Missouri State (22-10), Villanova (19-12), Virginia (19-11)

Multi-bid conferences: 12

The final teams in by seed included Indiana State, a true bubble team after losing in the Missouri Valley Conference semifinals to eventual Arch Madness champion Creighton. A Valley regular season title, though, and a win at Indiana in the IU Classic (where the Hoosiers previously had a 51-0 record) got the Sycamores into the tourney for the first time since Larry Bird led ISU against Magic Johnson and Michigan State in the 1979 title game.
Perhaps the worst at-large pick was Missouri, which somehow was pegged a 9 seed with an 18-12 record and a 3-11 mark against the RPI top 50 (7-11 against the top 100). Nine of the Tigers’ 12 losses were to ranked teams, and a 4-6 stretch to close the season included six losses to teams inside the RPI top 20. On the other hand, a home win over rival Kansas (an 8 seed in the NCAAs that year) and a neutral site victory over NCAA 4 seed Illinois were the only wins over the NCAA tourney field in 14 chances; Mizzou’s third-best win was over NIT club SMU. When quality losses make up most of the argument for a team, that probably should be a red flag.

SW Missouri State was the team that deserved a bid most, from this view for sure over their higher-profile state institution. The Bears held a 34 RPI and were 2-4 against the RPI top 50 but 9-6 against the top 100. Comparing to Missouri, The Tigers had the edge in top 50 wins, but extend it to the top 55 and SMS takes a 5-3 lead. Stretch to the top 80 and the Bears win that comparison 9-6. Moreoever, the school now known as Missouri State closed strong at a time when that mattered-ten straight wins before a loss to Creighton in the MVC Tournament final. The Bears non-conference schedule wasn’t awesome, but it wasn’t bad with Fresno State, Saint Louis, SMU, TCU, Toledo, Tulsa and Wyoming. For all the talk about Barry Hinson teams in 2006 and 2007 being big-time snubs, this is one that often gets forgotten but was arguably the biggest of them all.

2002

Last in: 10 Michigan State (19-11), 10 Pepperdine (22-8), 11 Boston College (20-11), 11 Southern Illinois (26-7), 11 Wyoming (21-8), 12 Missouri (21-11), 12 Tulsa (26-6), 12 Utah (21-8)

Multi-bid conferences: 11

Southern Illinois and Wyoming both got in on the strength of just-good-enough numbers and regular season conference titles. The Salukis were 3-2 against the top 50 and 5-3 vs. the top 100, but also had four sub-100 losses. SIU also took advantage of one high-profile chance at home, defeating eventual NCAA 5 seed and national runner-up Indiana in early December. Amazing what happens when a quality team from outside college sports’ top tier gets chances at home against high profile teams. With their NCAA bid, the Salukis would roll all the way to the Sweet 16.

2003

Last in: 10 Alabama (17-11), 10 Arizona State (19-11), 10 Auburn (20-11), 10 Colorado (20-11), 11 Southern Illinois (24-6), 12 BYU (23-8), 12 Butler (25-5)

Multi-bid conferences: 12

The 2003 NCAA Tournament selection committee did one of the better jobs selecting and seeding any committee has done in the last 20 years. It is unfortunate that part of its legacy was a big ‘whoops’ noticed right after the brackets came out.

Southern Illinois was one spot ahead of Butler in the RPI and also got in as a second team out of the Missouri Valley. The Salukis leaned on a late victory over nationally ranked Creighton, a memorable buzzer-beater win over UW-Milwaukee in the first-ever ESPN BracketBusters, and a run to the MVC tourney final. Otherwise, SIU was just 3-5 against the RPI top 100. Teams like Butler and Southern Illinois played a role, though, in 12 different conferences putting multiple teams in the tournament.

2020 MVC Tournament: Schedule, Bracket, Recent History, TV/Streaming Info--Blogging The Bracket