Primarily a collection of news links about all 12 Missouri Valley League teams on a daily basis, culled from online newspapers, school athletic websites, the conference website, and school newspapers, plus some other content from time to time.
- These two enter on different trajectories. Ohio State
lost four of its final five games, and three of those losses came
against teams ranked 80th or worse in KenPom. Meanwhile, Loyola
impressed in its run through Arch Madness.
- Loyola’s surge corresponded directly to the return of Marquise
Kennedy, a bulldog defender and capable creator
- On the other hand, Ohio State’s swoon coincided with injury issues for
big men Zed Key (ankle) and Kyle Young (concussion). Both are
questionable for this one, with Key far more likely to return
- Surely you remember these Ramblers! Four starters return from the
squad that sent 1-seed Illinois packing last season
- Chris Holtmann has make the NCAA Tournament in every season of his
tenure. For some reason, the fanbase is restless, and the school’s
Athletic Director had to give him a vote of confidence
on Monday. That’s…not always the good sign it appears to be
Ohio State Has the Ball
- The Buckeyes are deadly on this end, fueled mostly by a deadly post up
attack and the playmaking of freshman Malaki Branham
- Loyola does not see many post up threats in the Missouri Valley.
Missouri State’s Gaige Prim did average 16.0 PPG and 10.0 RPG in two
meetings, though
- Loyola’s Lucas Williamson has won back-to-back Defensive Player of the
Year awards in the Missouri Valley. He’ll likely be tasked with
blanketing Branham, and if he eliminates the froshy from the flow of the
game, Ohio State’s offense is in trouble
- Ohio State takes a ton of mid-range jumpers (18th-most in the country,
per Hoop-Math), but these Buckeyes are deadly from that range. They rank
third nationally in FG% in the mid-range at 44.8%, primarily due to
Liddell
- Loyola’s answer to Liddell will probably be Aher Uguak or Chris
Knight, two rangy forwards with some physicality to them. Both are solid
defenders, but that matchup is still to Liddell’s advantage
- You are not scoring in transition against this Loyola team. Per both
Synergy and Hoop-Math, they rate as the top team in the country at
preventing such opportunities
Loyola-Chicago Has the Ball
- Without a post fulcrum like Cam Krutwig, first-year coach Drew
Valentine has adopted a more pick-and-roll-heavy attack. Various
ball-handlers can run the show, be it Braden Norris, Lucas Williamson,
Kennedy, or even wing Ryan Schwieger
- Shooters dot the perimeter around the primary PnR action. Norris,
Williamson, Schwieger, Tate Hall, and Keith Clemons have all had
excellent years from deep, and Uguak can knock in a few as well.
- Ohio State’s defensive PnR numbers are not terribly encouraging: 15th
percentile against ball-handlers, 20th percentile against roll men, 13th
percentile against spot up shooters
- Overall, the Buckeyes are brutal on this end. They have fallen to 131st in
KenPom’s AdjDE, a dismal number that underscores their lack of impact
individual defenders
Final Thoughts
- The injury questions on Ohio State’s frontline are a serious concern.
Young and/or Key being out would hurt them on both ends
- Coaching has to lean towards the Buckeyes here. Valentine could be a
rising star, but it’s his first NCAA Tournament game in the big chair.
Holtmann, meanwhile, is a veteran of this atmosphere and has a strong track
record, 2021 notwithstanding
- Ultimately, Loyola’s PnR attack should shred Ohio State’s flimsy defense.
1.2 PPP is not out of the question here if the Ramblers knock down shots.
- The pace will be slow, but both offenses should be quite efficient
(despite Williamson’s efforts on Branham)
26. Loyola Chicago: This is the first-round upset
visible from space, the No. 10 Ramblers over No. 7 Ohio State, with both
2021 and the past couple of weeks as evidence. Last year Loyola took down No. 1 seed Illinois in the second round,
while the Buckeyes were beaten in the first round by No. 15 Oral
Roberts. More recently: Ohio State is limping in with four losses in its
last five games, while Loyola authoritatively won the Missouri Valley
tournament. This Loyola team is different from the ’18 and ’21 tourney
darlings in that it’s no longer coached by Porter Moser and doesn’t
revolve around ground-bound center Cameron Krutwig. The new edition is
led by rookie head coach Drew Valentine and fifth-year wing Lucas
Williamson. The one constant: Sister Jean and her mojo.
The Ramblers have been here before. Seven of Loyola’s
top eight scorers from the team that went to the Sweet 16 last season
are back, and the Ramblers have also added a pair of key transfers to
the mix to round out what has been a rock-solid rotation for first-year
coach Drew Valentine. This team shoots the three at a high level and
really defends. They draw an Ohio State team that has lost four of five,
including bad losses to Nebraska and Penn State. And should they knock
off the Buckeyes, Loyola will get a crack at a Villanova team that won’t
overwhelm them physically. That potential Round of 32 game would be
rather low-scoring and would likely get won by whichever team makes more
threes. Given the Ramblers are in the top 10 nationally in three-point
percentage, I’ll roll the dice on them to find their way back to the
second weekend for the third time in the last four NCAA tournaments.
BET: No. 10 Loyola Chicago (+400)
Jeff Roberson/AP
SI.com’s Dan Lyons:
There's a little college hoops program from the Windy City that you may be
familiar with if you tune in around this time each year. The Ramblers
may no longer have Porter Moser or last year’s tournament star Cameron
Krautwig, but they return plenty of experience from that shocking run,
while changing their style pretty substantially from 2020–21. Under Drew
Valentine, a Moser assistant from 2017–21, the Ramblers spread things
out, with five contributor who shoot at least 39% from three. They’re
pretty balanced, with the No. 42 offense and No. 22 defense per KenPom,
and have an advantageous first-round matchup with Ohio State, which
sputters into the Big Dance. A potential second-round matchup with No. 2
Villanova looms large, but this Wildcats team isn’t as overwhelming as
Jay Wright’s recent championship-winners, and a veteran Loyola squad
won’t be afraid of the stage.
Lower-seeded team with the best chance of advancing past the first weekend
Sweeney: No.
10 Loyola Chicago. The Ramblers have plenty of March Madness experience
and got a great draw, facing off with a reeling Ohio State in the first
round before a potential date with No. 2 seed Villanova in the round of
32. The Wildcats aren’t built to blow someone out, and I trust Lucas
Williamson and Braden Norris to make big plays in March.
1. Which first-round game has your attention the most?
McCormack
Ohio State and Loyola Chicago have my attention the most to start off
the day on Friday. Ohio State has not played their best basketball down
the stretch but has not been the healthiest either. Loyola Chicago is a
team that really has excelled in March and is not scared of anyone.
The Ramblers’ style of play vs the Buckeyes will be interesting to
see who controls it overall. This really should be a fun game to kick
off a long day of madness.
3. Which is the most likely first-round upset?
Watson
Loyola Chicago uses a ton of misdirection and motion offensively and
ranks in the top 20 nationally in 3-point percentage. Ohio State has
major issues defensively — similar to the issues that saw them lose to
15-seed Oral Roberts in the first round last season.
This Loyola Chicago team doesn’t have as high a ceiling as their 2018
or 2021 teams did, but they have the offensive firepower to take down
Ohio State in the Round of 64.
4. Which double-digit seed has the best chance of making the Sweet 16?
Watson
I’ll stick with Loyola Chicago here. I like the Ramblers to upset an
Ohio State team that can’t defend in the round of 64. A potential round
of 32 matchup with 2-seed Villanova would be a tough task, but one that
Loyola Chicago has the potential to handle. The Ramblers are
well-coached and balanced — they can defend at a high level and are
highly disciplined offensively.
It’s not something I would bet on, but Loyola Chicago has the most
realistic path to the Sweet 16 of any double-digit seed in the South
Region.
This feels like a battle of two teams that have been trending in
opposite directions down the stretch. Ohio State has lost four of its
last five games coming into the tournament, with three of those losses
coming to teams that were not even close to making the field. Loyola
Chicago, on the other hand, put forth arguably its best performances of
the season in the Missouri Valley Tournament, rolling by an average of
15.0 points across three games. The Ramblers also exacted revenge on
three teams that beat them in the regular season during that tournament.
Ohio State is the better offensive team with the best player (EJ
Liddell) on the floor. Loyola Chicago, though, is more balanced and
features several holdovers from last season’s Sweet 16 team (Lucas Williamson remains as a holdover from their 2018 Final Four roster as well).
The game might come down to whether the Ramblers can slow down
Liddell. Ohio State’s 6-7 star is one of the best players in the country
and also makes a living at the free-throw line, ranking 79th nationally
in free throw rate. Additionally, Loyola runs an analytics-friendly
defense that forces opponents to take a good chunk of shots in the
mid-range; Ohio State is comfortable in that position, though,
attempting the 30th-most percentage of shots from the mid-range in the
country and hitting them at the eighth-best rate. Liddell, in
particular, is deadly in the mid-range.
Teams: Florida State (17-13) vs. Missouri State (24-7)
Where: Baton Rouge, Louisiana
About
Florida State: The Seminoles strong finish included upsets over ranked
opponents and NCAA teams in Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. Guard Morgan
Jones leads Florida State with 14.1 points and 5.7 rebounds a game.
About
Missouri State: Finished second in the Missouri Valley Conference. They
are led by Abi Jackson, who tops the team with 13.2 points and 6.9
rebounds a game.
Up Next: Winner faces sixth seed Ohio State (23-6) in the Spokane Region
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