What's Up In The Missouri Valley: What's Up In The Missouri Valley 10/28/2021

OPENING NIGHT 11/9 NOTES--Staring At The Floorboards

TOLEDO @ VALPO

Lottich has (reportedly) installed a more modern offense, straying from his highly patterned motion with the addition of every Wisconsin role player from the last few years (only a slight exaggeration). Of course we won’t get to see the fully revamped Valpo offense until Kobe King is eligible in mid Dec, but until then, the Crusa…er….Beacons will likely be relying on their typically solid defense, and they’ll need it against one of the best offensive schemes in midmajor basketball. Coach K’s space and pace offense shouldn’t lose too much without Marreon Jackson, as Dennis and Rollins are one of the strongest backcourt tandems in the MAC. Unfortunately, the Rockets already lost Edu for the third straight season, meaning they’re once again going to be extremely vulnerable at the rim, which is where Valpo’s post driven offense will be heading with the ball every trip down court, especially without King available. Krikke and the B1G frontcourt could have a field day. However, they could have some issues defending nominal 5 Shumate in Coach K’s 5 out offense. Bit of a chess match in terms of personnel here.
EVANSVILLE @ CINCINNATI

No one plays slower than the Aces under Lickliter, as the offense is ball screen after ball screen after ball screen until Givance or Newton find a shot or shooter from behind the arc (in 10 seasons, Lickliter’s teams have fallen out of the top 10 in 3PTA rate just twice (and they were 16th and 23rd in those two years). Wes Miller will have Cincy pressing, as that was his bread and butter at UNCG, I’m just not sure how quickly he’ll implement that. It is however an effective strategy against the Aces, as they were pressed at a top 50 rate nationally as teams attempted to make them initiate those ball screens further and further away. As good as Givance was in ball screen offense, he was worse defensively. In fact, Evansville graded out in the 1st percentile nationally in halfcourt D per Synergy- a deadly combo of poor perimeter D AND no rim protection. There’s little to suggest that cocktail changes for the better this season, meaning DeJulius, MAW, Saunders, Davenport, and Newman could have a field day attacking the rim.
INDIANA STATE @ GREEN BAY

The Trees are an intriguing team, as Josh Schertz will attempt to install a super uptempo, pace and space offense in the country’s biggest grinder conference, the Mo Valley. Schertz brought a slew of versatile, grab and go wings with him from Lincoln Memorial to form a rim attacking, drag screen kick out offense around dynamic guard Tyreke Key. Unfortunately, he’ll be facing a team in Green Bay that’s looking to slow the game to a crawl and work a methodical, swing based halfcourt offense. The good news for ISU is that Will Ryan’s squad allowed the 64th highest transition rate last year, an area I’m sure he’s looking to shore given his coaching pedigree. Really wonky game with mostly new rosters on both sides and contrasting styles. It should also be noted ISU is already battling a slew of injuries.
NICHOLLS ST @ NORTHERN IOWA

AJ Green reportedly looks great for UNI, but now Born is out with a wrist injury (although a return for the opener hasn’t been ruled out). If Jacobson was intending to ease Green back in minutes wise, that plan might be quashed already. Contrasting styles here, as Nicholls runs a lot of ball screens through Gordon, which is a tall order against UNI’s staunch pack line D. Nicholls also loves to crash the O glass and run off misses- UNI is built on D rebounding (in 15 years, UNI has fallen out of the top 15 nationally in DREB% just 5x) and denying transition attempts. UNI’s offense often flows through Phyfe in both posts, and while big bodied Lyons graded out in the 95th percentile in Synergy’s post defense, he’s likely going to be pulled away from the rim for stretches. Tough opening night matchup scheme wise for the SLC’s likely best team.
BRADLEY @ SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

SDSU runs some of the best continuity offense in the entire country, but Wardle and company saw it last year. Unfortunately they got torched to the tune of 1.19 PPP, due in large to a blistering 17-26 three point shooting performance from Henderson’s litany of lanky shooters. It wasn’t all bad news for the Braves, who typically fare well against continuity schemes, as they limited Wilson and scored at 1.14 PPP themselves, dominating the rim, FT line, and O glass. With the addition of potential world beater Leons and the return of Henry and Mast, it should be more of the same for the Braves offensively, but the backcourt lacks firepower this year. If SDSU is earthly in their shooting (not a given, since they were the 2nd best 3PT shooting team in the entire country), the Braves can certainly compete here given their scheme and length against Wilson.