Breakout mid-major seasons often catch us by surprise. At this time last year, who saw Dayton and San Diego State vying for top seeds in the 2020 NCAA Tournament? Neither school was even predicted to win its league.
So it’s not easy to identify the best mid-major squads for 2020-21 on June 1. Transfers and draft decisions could still impact several rosters. But we’re going to give it a shot anyway, based on the information we have right now. Here is our way-too-early preseason Mid-Major Top 10 (and remember, Gonzaga is not a mid-major!):
1. Northern Iowa
Yes, the Panthers spit the bit in their first game of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, losing by 21 points to Drake (a team they clubbed by 27 points on the road a week earlier. Sports are weird). But that shouldn’t overshadow a 25-6 campaign that included a victory at Colorado and three losses by one possession or in overtime. If UNI had a tough time finishing the deal, perhaps that should have been expected. The program had suffered through three straight non-winning seasons before making a leap. It needed to learn how to win when everything is on the line.
That experience in Arch Madness should only serve as motivation this offseason. Rapidly improving junior point guard A.J. Green is coming off a conference player of the year season. Coach Ben Jacobson still believes he has room to grow. Northern Iowa should remain one of the best shooting teams in the nation after finishing eighth in 3-point percentage, 11th in effective field goal percentage and 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency. Questions remain defensively after a No. 108 showing in that department, and the loss of league defensive POY Isaiah Brown won’t help matters. But Jacobson also has a solid group of young players ready to make an impact, a rebounding machine in Austin Phyfe and a 3-point specialist in Trae Berhow. This team should be hungry, deep and tough to guard. The Panthers had better be all of those things, because they have another team in their own league that will show up a few spots later on this list.
Krutwig averaged 15.1 points and 8.1 rebounds a game in 2019-20. (Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire)4. Loyola Chicago
Injuries and youth contributed to a slow start for the Ramblers, who were 8-5 at one point. But they played very well down the stretch, split a pair of overtime games against Northern Iowa and finished 13-5 in the Valley. There were no seniors in the rotation, but next season there will be a slew of them, led by star center Cameron Krutwig. Oakland transfer Brandon Norris, who made the 2019 Horizon League all-freshman team, will add depth to the backcourt. Cooper Kaifes, a deadeye shooter who missed ths season with a hip injury, should get back on the court as well.
Porter Moser should have his best and deepest roster since the 2018 Final Four run. And while that kind of finish should never be expected, the battle between the Ramblers and Northern Iowa should be all kinds of fun.
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